Category Archives: By Position

Fantasy Playoffs League Rankings for Wild Card Weekend

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The NFL Playoffs are here and like many, I am playing in a playoffs fantasy league.

 

Funny to think that 14 years ago I had to create one from my own imagination as no sites offered anything like it. I also had to reach into the way back machine and use pencils and paper to keep track of the team, their players, their stats, and add up the results by hand.

 

My, how technology has changed things since then!

 

But everyone is looking for players rankings, and depending on the type of league you play in, the rankings can vary. If you play in one where each round is a brand new slate, it makes life easier. If you’re in the type of league where you have to choose with an eye on who is likely to be in the Super Bowl, it changes the whole fantasy football draft dynamic.

 

For those in the latter types of league, the fantasy football draft analyzer software at FantasyFootballStarters.com has projected out each round of the playoffs thru the Super Bowl with the projected stats and rankings of each player at each position. Using its game prediction algorithm I have also written a commentary of the Power Analyzer Playoffs and Super Bowl predictions for each game. I was kind of surprised at the results the Analyzer had come to.

 

For those who prefer a little more human intuitiveness, I also have my own Super Bowl 46 and playoffs predictions posted at FFS as well. Even though they are my own predictions, I am a little surprised at who I picked, too. Usually Championships are won by playing great defense. But I see a matchup between two offensive juggernauts.

 

In my most recent fantasy football blogs post, I go over the Wild Card Weekend matchups and provide some extra commentary about each matchup. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the first round as every matchup finds itself having valid arguments to be made for either side winning each game.

 

As for fantasy playoffs player rankings for wild card weekend, here’s what our fantasy football lineup analyzer has players ranked based on a simple standard scoring system:

 

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees will also be a great playoffs league fantasy QB!

1) Drew Brees

2) Matt Ryan

3) Matt Stafford

4) Eli Manning

5) T.J. Yates

6) Ben Roethlisberger

7) Andy Dalton

8) Tim Tebow

 

No surprises here. The NFC teams are all stacked with great QB’s from a fantasy perspective while the AFC teams each have question marks. Kind of surprising Yates is the top AFC QB but he did have 300 yards and 2 TD’s in a week 14 matchup against the Bengals during the regular season.

 

Running Backs

1) Darren Sproles

2) Arian Foster

3) Ahmad Bradshaw

4) Isaac Redman

5) Kevin Smith

6) Michael Turner

7) Pierre Thomas

8) Willis McGahee

9) Brandon Jacobs

10) Cedric Benson

 

Sproles is a boom or bust #1 RB this week. Foster is a safer choice but he struggled for only 41 yards against the Bengals earlier in the year. Surprising Bradshaw is so high considering the Falcons run defense was top 10 this season. Redman’s a bit of a wild card but if Pittsburgh’s protecting a lead I can see it.

 

Wide Receivers

1) Marques Colston

2) Roddy White

3) Julio Jones

4) Calvin Johnson

5) Victor Cruz

6) Robert Meachem

7) Hakeem Nicks

8) Antonio Brown

9) Andre Johnson

10) Mike Wallace

 

Both Falcons WR’s making it in the top 3 isn’t surprising considering how poorly the Giants secondary has played and how hot both guys have been recently. Meachem at 6th is a boom or bust type of pick, but it helps him that Lance Moore isn’t expected to play. A little surprised A.J. Green didn’t crack the top 10 but his production since his shoulder injury has been down, Dalton’s play has cooled off, and the Texans are a top 5 pass defense.

 

Tight Ends

1) Jimmy Graham

2) Brandon Pettigrew

3) Tony Gonzalez

4) Jermaine Gresham

5) Jake Ballard

6) Joel Dreessen

7) Tony Scheffler

8) Owen Daniels

9) Travis Beckum

10) Heath Miller

 

No argument from me here at any spot. Dreessen over Daniels makes sense as Dreessen has been the preferred goal line target. No surprise at all no Denver TE’s are listed. Will Tebow complete more than 8 passes this week?

 

Kickers

1) Mike Nugent

2) John Kasay

3) Neil Rackers

4) Matt Bryant

5) Jason Hanson

6) Shaun Suisham

7) Lawrence Tynes

8) Matt Prater

 

Nugent as the top kicker but Cincinnati to lose the game? Guess the software program sees FG’s instead of TD’s in the Bengals immediate future.

 

Defenses/Special Teams

1) Cincinnati Bengals

2) Pittsburgh Steelers

3) Atlanta Falcons

4) New Orleans Saints

5) Houston Texans

6) Denver Broncos

7) Detroit Lions

8) New York Giants

 

Very surprised to see a team that gets sacks like the Giants do ranked 8th. Also surprised the Bengals place 1st overall despite not being predicted to win the game. To be fair, the Texans did have 4 fumbles in their regular season meeting so that accounts for something.

2011 Watch List #4

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Wow, another week and yet more injuries. What is an owner to do? The wire continues to thin out in each passing week, but amazingly there is still talent making headlines each week. While this talent could be a “one week wonder” it won’t be surprising when some owner drops a bigger named player to pick this young, hot stud up.

This weekend we saw Mike Vick, Kenny Britt and Darren McFadden all injured to varying degrees. Unfortunately the most severe was that of Kenny Britt with a tear to the MCL and possibly ACL, which will end his season. Reports are Mike Vick could miss 3-4 weeks with a broken right hand and DMC claims he has no injury, but the groin had tightened up. We also add another member to the “Hammy Hoax” list that of Jeremy Maclin, don’t expect him to face the 49ers next weekend.

Thankfully waiver wires across fantasy leagues are open for business and ready for action, this was another big, but strange weekend in fantasy football. Why is it this year? Oh yeah it was the how negotiations the owners and players participated in that saw abbreviated training camps and a quick free agency period. I believe we are still feeling the fall out and from the looks of it, we could still feel it for a longer period.

Kendall Hunter, RB SFO
Sure the 49ers are 2-1 but Gore has not gotten off to a very impressive start this season. After 3 weeks he has only totaled 184 yards from scrimmage and 1 TD. Sunday tweaked an ankle, but played hurt until the final few series in which Hunter took over the duties. While not all that memorable 9-26-1 TD, Hunter is definitely becoming a stronger insurance policy for Gore now that the first injury has occurred. Gore owners should already have Hunter stashed, but he could be available in some leagues.

Bernard Scott, RB CIN
Cedric Benson will have a hearing on Tuesday and faces a 3-game suspension. This could open the door for Scott on a temporary basis.       While he has had no fantasy value to this point, Scott could face BUF, JAC and IND while Benson is suspended. If you are in dire help for a few weeks, you might add Scott to your team.

Daniel Thomas, RB MIA
Surprisingly Thomas makes the watch list for the first time (not sure why he wasn’t here last week) after a 23-95 yard, 3-27 yard 1 TD through the air performance in a losing cause. The important fact is he is now gets the bulk of the carries on the ground. Bush will still the “change of pace” back, but won’t be the feature back, I believe Thomas has already won the full time job. Thomas has 2 tough games coming up, but versus SDG and NYJ, but he is on his way to establishing himself as one of the top rushing rookie RBs.

Alfonso Smith, RB ARI
Chris Wells was a last minute scratch and did not play against a soft SEA defense. Smith put up a 17-54 yard performance. Not all too impressive, but he showed much more than what veteran Chester Taylor did. Wells had played well for 2 games, but now carrying an injury Smith might take some carries down the road with Stephens-Howling a bit dinged up as well. This might be a situation to watch if Wells begins to struggle.

DeMarco Murray/Tashard Choice, DAL
I have added these backs based on reports that Felix Jones aggravated  his separated shoulder near the end of the MNF game. With a bye in week 5 the possibility is there to give Jones a few weeks off to heal. We will have to wait see what transpires out of Dallas camp and Jimmy Jones mouth.

Victor Cruz, WR NYG
I will consider Cruz a “one week wonder” at this point after turning a 3-110-2 TD performance vs Philly, including a 74 yard TD. He did make the most of his opportunity because of Manningham being out due to a concussion. The way injuries are occurring this season it’s quite possible Cruz could see more playing time, especially with Hixon being lost to the ACL. Keep an eye on Cruz, I believe there might be other better WR to pick up at this point.

Torrey Smith, WR BAL
Who? Smith is another “one week wonder” in my opinion at this point. WR, Lee Evans was inactive for Week 3 vs STL, which gave Smith the start, one in which he capitalized on the soft Rams secondary as his first NFL catch went for a 74 yard TD. Smith would finish the 1st quarter with 3 TDs and the day with 5-152 yards, an amazing day, but leave in the 4th quarter with cramps in his hammy. No doubt he will be targeted on the waiver wire. “Buyer beware” though he might have some value with Evans status in question for Week 4.

Nate Washington, WR TEN
Washington shouldn’t be listed, but I will include him now that Britt is done for the year with a torn MCL/ACL in his knee. Washington will take over as the #1 and with the success Britt saw, Washington has some big shoes to fill. As long as Hasselbeck can stay upright, Washington should benefit. It might also be worthwhile to watch who steps up at the #2 WR spot, it should be Damian Wiliams. Jared Cook will also be asked to fill the void.

Donald Jones, WR BUF
(Thanks to Cody and Buffalo Blizzard for this player.) Jones led the Bills in receiving vs NEP with 5-101 (10 targets). His number have been improving each week and the way Fitzpatrick continues to show a steady increasing in the passing game Jones may continue to see a nice bump in his stats. In defense of his performance, the Bills were down 21-0 and Fitzpatrick had to throw so all WR benefitted from this.

Notables: James Casey, TE HOU

Week 3:
WR: Washington, Nelson, Decker
TE: Chandler, Moore, Davis
RB: Helu, Jones, T, McCluster
Notables: Preston Parker, WR TB, Antonio Brown, WR PIT, Titus Young, WR DET, Brandon LaFell, WR CAR

Week 2:
WR: Cobb, Doucet, Ginn, Decker
TE: Watson, Moore, Davis
RB: Sproles, Reece, Caddy,
Notables: Avant, Nelson, Ford, Hartline

Week 1:
WR: Decker, Brown, Robiskie
RB: Carter, Helu, Karim,
Notables: Hunter, Murray, Ridley, Harrison, Little, Simpson, Briscoe, Alexander

2011 Watch List #3

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Now that week 2 of the NFL is almost in the book we can look forward to waiver wire activity. Probably the most notable injury of the weekend was the loss of KC Chiefs RB, Jamaal Charles who torn an ACL. He wasn’t the only one add to the list, Tony Romo, Mike Vick, Felix Jones, Miles Austin, Eddie Royal and Jordan Shipley. Unfortunately injuries are part of the game and I don’t believe all of these can really be attributed to a short camp, but just bad luck. Remember Russ Bliss is always talking about needing to be lucky in fantasy football. This could be one of those years.

We are starting to see a trend in the NFL with some regular names that are making the watch list. This is watch list #3 and we welcome back a few players at the TE position. This position is coming on very strong this year and while the elites have been somewhat quiet to start the season a few of the “other” tight ends have been putting up the yards and finding the end zone.

There does seem to be some new names out there that continue to put up some stats. They may not be the household names we are used to, but when injuries hit and you are looking to make a move you must look for the best available.

Many owners have asked a similar question, “What should I do with Peyton Manning?” Personally, I dropped him last week. I needed the slot and figured Eric Decker (WR, DEN) would be more worth in the short term than Manning would be. If he comes back to beat me in the playoffs, so be it, but holding on to him for the next 6 to 8 to 10 weeks isn’t going to do me a bit of good when it comes to providing me with options. If you can’t stick him on an IR, I would drop him.

Thomas Jones, RB/Dexter McCluster, RB/WR KC
Hard to say who will be the “go to guy” in Kansas City now that Jamaal Charles has been lost for the season due to the ACL. McCluster is more dynamic and could see more touches at the RB position. He did carry 8 times on Sunday for -2 yards. Thomas Jones is 33 years old and will probably see a bulk of the work load; he still has the ability, based on what we saw last year to make an impact. At best he would be a #3 RB or flex option. Considering the problems the Chiefs are facing neither of these players are too high on any of my want lists.

Roy Helu, RB WAS
The rookie had his best showing to date with a 10-74 yard performance on the ground and 3-38 yard receiving. He is still the clear cut back up to Hightower who continues to play very well in the starting role. While Helu is not worth starting at this point, he could be worth stashing on your bench for later in the year. I do expect Hightower to slow his role and the Redskins to hit a funk, which means Shanny could unexpectedly make a change at RB. He has done it before.

John Kuhn, RB GBP
With all the talk about Ryan Grant being able to recover from his injury and make a comeback and James Starks being more explosive on the field when carrying the ball, it’s been John Kuhn with 2 TD to lead the rushing attack. Not that a 3-6-2 TD is overly impressive, but we have see it now 2 weeks in a row that McCarthy has turned to his big fullback to pound the ball in from short yardage. So forget the controversy, maybe Kuhn is the short yardage back who will get you 7-9 TDs this season from very short yardage. Unfortunately his very low number of touches could frustrate you as an owner.

Scott Chandler, TE BUF
While Chandler wasn’t as big a part of the offense Sunday vs the Raiders, he did manage 2 catches, one for a TD bringing his season total to 3 TD. He now has 8-87 yards as the Bills are 2-0. Not a household name, but Fitzpatrick has been doing a very good job spreading the ball around, yesterday Chandler only had 2 receptions, but as long as 6 points continue to go up on the board you might keep him in mind at a league that is becoming deep at the TE position this season.

Evan Moore, TE CLE
This is the second watch list for Evan Moore and 2 weeks in a row that McCoy has targeted Evan Moore in the red zone and connected for a TD. Not a big production day for him as the 16-yard strike was his only catch of the day. Still hard to ignore 2 in 2 weeks for Moore and Cleveland as McCoy is looking more comfortable running the West Coast offense.

Fred Davis, TE WAS
Cooley was active for WAS but once again it was Fred Davis who took top honors for the now 2-0 Redskins as he hauled in 6-86-1 TD in Week 2 vs Arizona. He continues to be targeted by Grossman, 7 times total on Sunday and now has 11-191-1 TD on the season. Currently he is the top receiving option in the capital. This is another TE starting off the season having a break out year.

Eric Decker, WR DEN
This is the third and most likely final week that Decker will be seen on the watch list, With injuries to Lloyd (inactive on Sunday), a groin injury to Eddie Royal and Demaryius Thomas still on the rack, Decker took advantage of the situation and probably should be the #1 waiver claim at the WR position this week. He had 5-113-2 TD. With a rash of injuries, he should be owned in all leagues and started in many formats.

David Nelson, WR BUF
I had Nelson listed as a “notable” after Week 1 and Sunday vs Oakland he ended up leading all Buffalo receivers with 10 catches, 83 yards, which included a clutch TD with :14 seconds in the game to beat the Raiders. On the season Nelson has 14 catches to Steve Johnson’s 12 catches. He could be another option at a very deep WR position to own or watch. With injuries piling up, chances are he should be grabbed off waivers as long as Fitzpatrick continues to play very smart football.

Nate Washington, WR TEN
When we think TEN, we think Chris Johnson, but with the holdout Hasselbeck has been more active in the passing game the first few weeks. That bodes well for guys like Britt and Washington. The big difference between the two players, Britt has 3 TD and Washington has none. Still Washington has 13 receptions and on Sunday was targeted 11 times (7-99 yards). Hasselbeck has been the difference maker bringing the passing game back to TEN with the rushing game suffering.

Other notables: Preston Parker, WR TB, Antonio Brown, WR PIT, Titus Young, WR DET, Brandon LaFell, WR CAR

Here are a list of the previous two watch lists and players who were listed.

Watch List #2
RB: Sproles, Reece, Caddy
WR: Cobb, Doucet, Ginn, Decker
TE: Watson, Moore, Davis
Notables: Avant, Nelson, Ford, Hartline

Watch List #1
RB: Carter, Helu, Karim
WR: Decker, Brown, Robiskie
Notables: Hunter, Murray, Ridley, Harrison, Little, Simpson, Briscoe, Alexander

2011 Watch List #2

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I’ll admit it. Before I “found the light” and subscribed to Fantasy Football Starters I did not speculate on players very much. In 28 years of fantasy football the waiver wire is a relatively new concept for our league. We used 4 supplemental drafts during the year to replace injured players or to pick up “hot” talent for our roster.

Since the inception of the waiver wire and joining FFS, my views have started to change. While I make it a personal mission not to use the wire, many choose just the opposite path and love the flexibility the waiver wire offers. I fault no one who decides for or against the wire in their league. It’s a choice you make based on how you drafted. If you feel your roster is strong and competitive, then there is no need to move on additional talent.

Seven days ago I threw out a group of names before the start of the NFL season of players I thought could possibly put up some good numbers. While one week doesn’t make a season (Cam Newton!) we can look back on the weekend and add a few more names to that list that I feel deserve to be watched.

Marcel Reece RB OAK
Here is another fullback who seems to have a good set of hands and was used very well in the Raiders offensive scheme last night against DEN. Reece has outsstanding size, 6-3, 240 lbs. And did catch 25 balls last season. If last night was any indication on how Raider football was going to be played, then Reece could be a surprise running back in both the passing and short game (goal line). It should be noted McFadden was not in the game for some of the goal line plunges, it was Bush and Reece. One of the few to keep an eye on.

Carnell Williams RB STL
Caddy only makes this list because of the potential lingering injury to Steven Jackson. It’s also too hard to ignore the 19-91 yard performance on the ground, while grabbing 5-49 through the air. He was Steven Jackson “light” so to speak in his performance against Philly. I don’t expect this all season, but he did play very well against a notably stingy defense.

 

Darren Sproles RB NO
For those San Diego fans, Sproles 7-75-1 TD and 72-yard punt return TD does not come as a real big surprise. This is the type of player he was in his tenure with San Diego. He is that change of pace back that head coaches like. Sproles has the speed to make defenders miss, as well as the skills to be a game changer. Brees used him perfectly in the passing attack as the Saints attempted to comeback against the Packers. While I would not expect these types of numbers weekly, he is a running back that adds quality depth to your fantasy team.

Randall Cobb WR GB
Not sure it would be fair to leave him out, as he outscored all out Packer wide receiver in Week 1. His value was in the kick return game, as he took a kick off back 108 yards for a TD. Then late in the first quarter he caught a 32 yard TD pass from Aaron Rodgers. I don’t believe he will be an integral part of the passing attack in Green Bay, but if you are looking for a kick return or get yards for kick returns, then Cobb might be your man. He is way down the pecking order in terms of starting, but his talent has him on the watch list.

 

Early Doucet WR ARI
It might be “too early” (no pun intended) to tab Doucet as the legitimate #2 in Arizona opposite Larry Fitzgerald. Kolb only passed 18 times and Doucet and Fitzgerald both had 3 receptions, but it would be Early with the 105 yard performance and TD to outplay the $120 Larry Fitzgerald. Kolb only targeted Doucet 3 times, but he made the most of them. At best he is worth watching for now. I don’t believe I would make a move on this early on Doucet.

Ted Ginn Jr. WR SFO
Here is another player that might make some noise as a kick returner, but I hesitate to even include him. Ginn returned both a kick off and a punt for a TD in the Sunday victory over Seattle. As a wide receiver, he is #2 on the depth chart behind newly acquired Braylon Edwards, so I won’t expect much from him in the passing game. Like Randall Cobb if you are looking for a return guy and get points for return yards, then Ginn might be on your short list, but I don’t recommend watching him for depth at WR.

Eric Decker WR DEN
A very ugly 304 yards passing for Orton on Monday night in a somewhat unexciting game, but owners should take note of Eric Decker who returned a punt 90 yards for a TD in the 3rd quarter. He also caught 3-53 (5 targets). More importantly, if the injury to Brandon Lloyd is extensive, Decker gets a bump, more playing time and targets.

Ben Watson/Evan Moore TE CLE
Watson shouldn’t be a real surprise as he led the Browns in receiving last year with 68 receptions (763 yards 3 TD). Evan Moore has good size andimpressed during camp this season but is the #2 TE on the team. His lack of consistency has been a bit discouraging, but the new West Coast offense might see McCoy targeting both Watson and Moore in the red zone. Between the 2 players in week one they saw 13 targets, caught 6 for 80 yards and 2 TE. While not the most popular team or TE, they are two players to watch.

Fred Davis TE WAS
Washington has already planned to use a lot of 2 TE sets this season and Fred Davis is half of that set. In Sunday’s game he was targeted 6 times and had 5-105. Not bad considering it was Rex Grossman at QB. While I won’t tab Davis as a #1 TE, he is another player to watch. In a year where the league might be heavy at that position, Davis could potentially put up some good numbers if Grossman (or even Beck) stays healthy. He is another big, athletic player who can get underneath and become difficult to defend.

Other notables: Jason Avant, WR PHI, David Nelson, WR BUF, Jacoby Ford, WR OAK, Brian Hartline, WR MIA

2011 Watch List #1

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We are inside a week away from the start of the 2011-2012 NFL season, which begins with a big showdown featuring the last two Super Bowl teams, the Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints. Hopefully this game will kick off a great fantasy season for all owners. Unfortunately many fantasy owners also understand that the best laid plans sometimes need to be reviewed and revised. I don’t doubt this year with the lock out and CBA coupled with the short free agency period and even shorter training camps injuries could play a major factor this season.

Many owners have already drafted their teams or will be the next few days. As owners often do, I know because I am always doing it (now), is trying to speculate on talent as we get deeper in the NFL season. Not a week goes by we don’t think about injuries. There are times we will need to review our team because we have players on our team who are not performing. I figured it’s never too early to put together a list of possible players that will be picked off the waiver wire.

Roy Helu RB WAS
The rookie out of Nebraska has big play ability, which was something the Redskins lacked much of the year. Last year Ryan Torain showed flashes at times, but Mike Shanahan was shuffling RBs at random. This year Tim Hightower is the starter but Helu has a chance to be the “change of pace” RB Washington needs. He needs to work on pass blocking and picking up the blitz. With Torain now healthy, Helu will compete for carries. The way Shanahan used RBs last year makes Helu look like a good prospect as the season goes on.

Delone Carter RB IND
The only thing certain in the Colts backfield is Joesph Addai will be the starting running back. There was rumor last year’s back up and replacement would be waived by Indy when teams cut rosters down to 53 players. Brown is still on the depth chart, but it’s Syracuse rookie, Delone Carter who has “impressed” during preseason. He is a strong and explosive back who should win the back up over Brown. Addai’s track record of staying healthy isn’t all that impressive, which means Carter could find himself handling he ball sooner than later.

Deji Karim RB JAX
I had some doubts even including Deji Karim on this list since Rashard Jennings has been lost for the season due to a knee injury being placed on IR. Karim now gets bumped to the back up role for Maurice Jones-Drew, who missed 2 games last year because of injury. With the lose of Jennings, MJD might be relied upon more with Karim as the back up. I suspect MJD will get nicked with minor injuries, which could put Karim in a time share with MJD or getting spot starts for the Jags.

Eric Decker WR DEN
This wide receiver seems to be sliding under the radar during preseason play. Some draw comparisons to Ed McCaffrey. With injuries to Eddie Royal (hip) and Demaryius Thomas (Achilles), Decker is working on starting opposite Brandon Lloyd. Coach Fox is high on Decker as well “expecting big things.” Receivers are usually plentiful, but with the thin air and Orton at QB, you might watch this kid.

Antonio Brown WR PIT
Brown has suddenly ended up on many fantasy lists as a deep sleeper because of his performance during preseason. Not to get caught up in the hype, Brown played well and the Steelers talk highly about his speed and confidence. As it stands now he is not going to be a star on your fantasy team unless injuries occur. He is a name to put away as the progresses.

Brian Robiskie WR CLE
Robiskie came on the final 3 games of the 2010 season recording 3 TDs and 152 yards, which indicates a rapport with Colt mcCoy. This year indications are he will hold off rookie, Greg Little and start opposite Mohamed Massaquoi. Colt McCoy will be running the West Coast offense this season, but with Hillis in the backfield you have to think they will still be a run dominated team. Add to that the ability of Evan Moore and the stalwart, Ben Watson at TE. I still believe Robiskie should be looked at in deeper leagues.

Other notables: Kendall Hunter, RB SF, DeMarco Murray, RB DAL, Stevan Ridley, RB NE, Jerome Harrison, RB DET, Greg Little, WR CLE, Jerome Simpson, WR CIN, Dezmon Briscoe, WR TB, Danario Alexander, WR STL.

It will be clearer as the the season gets underway who could potentially be the hot pick up, even after Week 1. For owners in keeper leagues, some of these players will be better suited for the long term than an immediate impact. Still if you are researching players, it’s never too early to start your watch list going. Fantasy football is dynamic and one injury or lack of output could have you looking to make a move to better your team.

SLEEPER Target Monsters- Wide Receivers 2011

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Let’s concentrate on little known wide receivers that produced well in 2010 and take a look at their outlook for the upcoming season. These were players that largely went undrafted and were picked up later in the season on the waiver wire. There is nothing more frustrating than looking for later round wide receivers on draft day that can help you win and stay in contention until your stud players come back from injury or bye weeks.

The key is to select the best player for your scoring system that can help give you great depth. 

Here were the top five target monsters and their totals from 2010.

Roddy White – 179

Reggie Wayne- 176

Larry Fitzgerald-173

Brandon Lloyd- 153

Brandon Marshall-145

2011 Sleeper Target Monsters

 

 

Miami's Davone Bess is ikely to be a target monster again in 2011

Davone Bess- Miami Dolphins- 2010 Total Targets-125

Bess is one of the most versatile players on the Dolphin’s roster. Though he plays mainly in the slot he has started for the Dolphins on the outside as well and is a return specialist. He has a knack for getting open even though he is very small and does not have lightning speed. I picked him as a sleeper last summer and he performed well with 79 catches for 820 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Bess had more targets than Wes Welker in 2010. He is best suited for PPR scoring leagues and a perfect # 4 WR in standard scoring systems.

I will give the same advice that I did last summer. With all of the off –of- the- field personal issues of WR Brian Hartline and WR Brandon Marshall, Bess should once again be a heavy contributor in catches in 2011.

At the time of this writing Chad Henne was rumored to be the starting QB for the Dolphins. If he does start, then this should insure another productive season for Bess. With most of the attention on WR Brandon Marshall in defensive secondary coverage, Bess will be in single coverage all season long.  If Marshall gets into any type of trouble, Bess should have a production surge.

This is a situation to watch when camps open up. The beauty about Bess is that you will probably be able to get him in the later rounds even though he is now officially on the fantasy radar. Just watch what happens in training camp before you think about picking him up. The quarterback position is key for the success of Davone Bess in 2011.

Danny Amendola- St. Louis Rams-2010 Total Targets – 123

 

Amendola was a pleasant surprise for the Rams last year as injuries once again crippled their starters; most notably WR Mark Clayton, who was making big noise for the Rams before he was lost for the year with an injury.  

QB Sam Bradford needed someone to take his place so he began to pitch the rock to Amendola who proved to have a knack of getting open in the slot position.

It looks like WR Mark Clayton needs more time to heal from his devastating injury in 2010 so the Rams just signed Mike Sims-Walker. Look for him to become the #1 WR choice with Amendola as the second WR option early in the season. However, the Rams are loaded with marginal receivers so another may emerge. Amendola is firmly entrenched as the slot receiver though and will play the Wes Welker type role for the Rams.

Do I expect Amendola to rack up another 85 catch season? Probably not.  But 70 to 75 catches is in his 2011 range. Passing attack guru Josh McDaniels’ has control of the offense and he will be schooling QB Sam Bradford to make him a more potent player. The Rams know they need to improve their passing attack to compete and Amendola will provide the short pass to stretch the chains. His low 8.1 YPC and 3 TD total is not inviting for fantasy owners so I would expect him to be an important bench player only in PPR leagues.  He is essential to your PPR team for quality depth if one of your studs should fall to injury.

Mike Thomas-Jacksonville Jaguars- 2010 Total Targets- 101

 

Thomas came on by mid season and left the often injured Mike-Sims Walker in the dust and took over the WR # 1 position. Now that the lock-out has gone into late July, look for QB Garrard to once again take over the reins and turn Thomas into a true # 1 WR.  You will be able to get Thomas late and watch him blossom since there is very little risk with this pick. You will get true value by drafting him as a WR # 3 and watching him elevate his game.  He was targeted 65 % of the time in the red zone and now will finally get it going with Sims-Walker gone from the team.

This is his time. A great depth pick indeed.

Derrick Mason- Baltimore Ravens- 2010 Total Targets-100

 

I told everyone not to forget about Derrick Mason and even wrote an article about it before the 2010 season. Many coaches thought that WR Anquan Boldin would once again return to fantasy prominence and leave Mason behind. Well, that just didn’t happen. In fact, the two were almost identical in production.

Anquan Boldin- 64 receptions, 837 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns.

Derrick Mason- 61 receptions, 802 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns.

It’s amazing that 37 year old Mason nearly out- produced Boldin. The reason this happened is that opposing defensive secondary’s were paying close attention to Boldin and Ray Rice while Mason was always draped in single coverage. Look for more of the same this year as this most likely will be his last. If you want a WR #3 that will give you 60 to 65 catches, 800 receiving yards, and 5 to 7 touchdowns, then Mason still makes a great fantasy pick for your bench late in the draft.

 Ravens QB Joe Flacco still has great confidence in his ability and so should you. We told you to take Mason last season and he produced. The Ravens just recently waived him but I highly doubt that the Ravens will start an unproven rookie and not re-sign Mason. If the Ravens ink him to a new contract, he will start and you should draft him for your bench. If not, then say goodbye to a productive fantasy football player that gave many teams such great fantasy depth for so many years.

Johnny Knox- Chicago Bears –2010 Total Targets- 99

 

Johnny Knox eventually became the true # 1 WR in the Mike Martz passing experiment in Chicago. What we found out in 2010 is that Devin Hester is not a real receiver while Johnny Knox became Cutler’s go to guy. His nearly 19 yard per catch production puts him in the elite range for yardage hogs in the NFL. He is a home run hitter and deep ball threat and makes a great low level WR # 2 in standard scoring systems. Look for him to improve in his catch total as QB Jay Cutler becomes more comfortable in the passing game and since Martz is so in love with the system and could care less if he adds length to his receiving corps, look for Knox to improve all around in 2011, even with the addition of a free-agent WR Roy Williams who should have little impact on Knox’s numbers and who I predict will be riding the pine by mid season.

Lance Moore- New Orleans Saints-2010 Total Targets-95

 

 

 

Lance Moore went largely undrafted last year except in PPR leagues.  The spread offense led by Drew Brees is hard to predict since footballs seem to fly to the open man and not just his favorite receivers. Moore produced well in 2010, raking up an astonishing  72 % of his targets in the red zone. This is not surprising since he hauled in 8 touchdowns.

Since Moore has signed a new contract to keep him happy, that will keep the fantasy owners happy to, He should be available in the mid rounds to keep your 2011 roster a strong one.

2011 Bust out Sleeper- Mario Manningham- New York Giants- 2010 Total Targets- 92

Manningham took over the starting spot when Steve Smith went down to injury and became the WR # 1 when Hakeem Nicks was injured late in the year. What Manningham did was put up 944 total yards and 9 touchdowns which included three consecutive 100 yard games in the last three weeks of the season. 

Late word is that there is a good chance that WR Steve Smith will start out on the PUP list and won’t play for the first six weeks of the season even if the Giants sign him to a new contract. If this happens, then expect Manningham to solidify the WR # 2 position and put up even bigger numbers in 2011. This is a safe pick with little risk and someone you should target as a very strong WR # 2 in all scoring systems in the middle rounds of your draft.

Can Super Mario do it again in 2011? My guess is that he can.

James

2011 NFL Free Agency: Teams get ready to make house calls

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With one of the most wild free agency periods in the history of sports on the verge of happening in the NFL, hopefully within a week there are some interesting points being made by: former players Daren Sharper, coaches Herm Edwards, media experts Adam Shefter and former NFL executives like Andy Brandt around what could transpire over the next two weeks. Three key points to think about:

1) Teams will focus immediately on undrafted college players then their own free agents. Unsigned college players are where the “nuggets” can be found as we know in normal years these players are signed immediately after the NFL draft. College players that were drafted by teams who already hold their rights will be the last to get signed.

2) Transactions: Probably looking at 50 transactions per team, totaling approximately 1600 transactions in the entire NFL. In a normal season those transactions are completed over 90 days, this year that could be 14 days.

3) Gone are the days of NFL free agents touring several teams and leveraging those visits to get the best deal. What is probably going to happen is players will ask teams to come to them, since there will not be enough time for them to take multiple visits. Kind of like an open house of sorts.  Can you imagine Kevin Kolb sitting in his house having NFL GM’s stopping by making the big pitch? Get your popcorn ready Kevin!

Now, back to the business of fantasy football keeping track of those transactions is going to be absolutely crazy. The team at fantasyfootballstarters.com is already feeling the crunch. Thank goodness NFL Fantasy Football Analyst Russ Bliss is enjoying a two week vacation right now and due back on July 29th, just in time to track transactions, simulate games and start rocking!

At the end of the day, its going to be quite a ride for the next three weeks!

2011 TE Sleepers

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Tight End Sleepers – 2011

 

Rob Gronkowski:

 

Plus Factors:

 

He must be considered as a borderline # 1 TE after a very impressive rookie season where he caught 10 touchdowns which tied for the lead in the NFL. He makes a big target for QB Tom Brady and had 9 red zone touchdowns out of 15 red zone targets. He is without a doubt the go to guy for the Patriots when they need to score through the air close to the goal line.

Minus factors:

 

With a healthy fellow TE Aaron Hernandez looming around the hash marks, will Gronkowski’s production be much less in 2011? Was he a one year wonder?

Final Analysis:

Gronkowski’s low yardage total (546) makes him more of an ideal #1 TE in touchdown heavy leagues. However, the sky could be the limit for him if you like taking a gamble. Let your scoring system and personal risk factor decide which round you draft him in. Brady will keep going to him because he produces and has gained trust in the clutch.

Jimmy Graham:

 

Plus Factors:

 

Veteran Jeremy Shockey is gone from the team paving the way for Graham to have a big year in the Saints pass happy system. His big soft hands make a formidable target for QB Drew Brees and he ended last year with 4 touchdowns in the last 3 games.  He is a former basketball player and has great leaping ability to go up for those high throws.

 

Minus Factors:

 

QB Drew Brees loves to spread the ball around to everyone on the Saints. Will Graham get his looks in the end zone? Or, will he be just an afterthought in a high-octane passing offense? Has he learned enough in the system to continue to improve in 2011?

Final Analysis:

Graham is worth the risk in every scoring format. If the top TE’s are gone and you are in need of a top gun, he just might be your player. How can you miss with this pick when Drew Brees is throwing him the ball?

Ben Watson:

 

Plus Factors:

I watched both Ben Watson and Peyton Hillis closely last year in pre-season and noticed right away that the Browns were trying feverishly to get them both the ball. Peyton Hillis then became a huge sleeper while Ben Watson became comfort food for rookie QB Colt McCoy later in the season and I expect the same thing to happen in 2011 no matter what receiver may emerge in Cleveland. Young quarterbacks have a tendency to rely on tight end play through their early development. I see Watson putting in another productive year with QB Colt McCoy tossing him the rock.

Minus Factors:

 

 

The Cleveland Browns offense is an anemic one. Even though they have an improving defense and a very good offensive line, the offense is a mess and it would be very hard to believe that Watson could be a bonafide point scoring machine.

Rookie QB Colt McCoy showed progress with a stronger arm than expected and an ability to run the ball well in his first year. Can he build on this? Or, will he regress in 2011? If he does regress, will this have a direct impact on Watson’s numbers?

Watson sometimes has concentration issues and drops easy passes.

 

Final Analysis:

 

 

Watson is coming off of his best season ever with a whopping 68 catches and 763 receiving yards. However, a very disappointing 2010 touchdown total will surely scare many fantasy owners away. Since the Browns will be going to a west coast style offense, he should at least match his output from 2010. Expect his TD total to rise as well.

If you are in a PPR league and get 1 point per ten receiving yards or less, Watson is the ideal choice for you if you are stuck late in the draft without a decent TE to lean on.

Owen Daniels

 

 

Plus Factors:

 

 

Can Owen Daniels return to his 2008 form where he caught 70 passes for nearly 900 yards? He is an intricate part of Matt Schaub’s passing attack and a dangerous weapon on the field at all times.

Minus Factors:

 

 

Daniels has missed 19 games in two seasons due to injury and he was brought back way too early in 2010 but became very productive near the end of the season.  His injury history might cause him to drop considerably in the draft. He has never been a high touchdown producer either.

Final Analysis:

 

 

The Texans had an absolutely horrid pass defense in 2010 and drafted defensive players in  6 out of  8 rounds  including two cornerbacks and a safety. Due to the lockout it will take awhile before their pass defense develops. This means that the defense will once again be miserable, at least for the first half of the season.

With opponents focusing mainly on stopping Andre Johnson and Arian Foster, Daniels should be open often and be used frequently by Schaub especially in catch -up mode in the close 4th quarter games because they won’t be able to hold a lead. Daniels will benefit directly from this in statistics and fantasy points.

In other words, Daniels is primed for a big year only if he can stay healthy and should be available from the mid rounds on.

 

2011 Tight End Super Sleeper- Brandon Pettigrew

 

Plus Factors:

 

 

Pettigrew came out of nowhere last year to establish himself as a force for the Detroit Lions. At 6-5 inches in height and a whopping 265 pounds, Pettigrew is big and physical and has improved his blocking style to the NFL level. Thought to be mainly a blocking TE when he was drafted, the Lions signed veteran TE Tony Scheffler to create havoc in the opponents secondary in 2010. However, it was Pettigrew that surprisingly became their pass catching threat. With 71 catches out of 111 targets and 722 receiving yards under his belt from 2010, Pettigrew looks to build on that momentum in 2011.

Minus Factors:

 

 

There is no doubt that his 4 touchdown total in 2010 will not impress TD heavy fantasy owners. Pettigrew was mainly used as a safety valve receiver last season due to all of the injuries suffered on the Lion offense.

Pettigrew has a lack of quickness a so it will be difficult for him to run certain types of routes. He is comparable to TE Jason Witten in size, just not as athletic.

Final Analysis:

 

 

Pettigrew should excel this season due in the offensive juggernaut that the Lions are predicted to become. QB Mathew Stafford is healthy but even if he gets re-injured, back-up QB Shaun Hill, who played most of last season, showed great chemistry with Pettigrew and relied on him greatly. Make sure that you factor this in to your decision to draft Pettigrew. It helps.

Pettigrew should be outstanding in PPR formats where you get 1 point per every ten yards or less but is still a question mark in touchdown heavy leagues. Will he be able to become a top five player in his position and transcend all fantasy scoring systems by increasing his touchdown production?

There is your risk, and one you should be willing to take.

James

Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Lloyd: Not Top 10 Fantasy WR’s in 2011?

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Change is ever present in fantasy football rankings from year to year, and with that in mind, there are three prominent names from last year’s top WR’s whom I have left off the 2011 top 10 fantasy football WR rankings article I recently posted over at FantasyFootballStarters.com. You can check out the names I did include on the above link, and one of the three, Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson, I covered recently in the fantasy football blogs section at FFS as well. Here, I’m going to talk a little about the other two: the Denver Broncos Brandon Lloyd, and Kansas City’s Dwayne Bowe.

No one saw the tremendous seasons either Lloyd or Bowe was going to have before the 2010 season started. Bowe was drafted as a WR2 in many leagues and was generally ranked between WR15-20 in our own fantasy football draft analyzer. In many leagues, Bowe was being dropped by week 4 as he had performed miserably and dropped a couple of easy TD passes. His stats were pathetic and impatient fantasy owners dumped him just before he rebounded with a vengeance to finish with a NFL high 15 TD receptions.

Meanwhile, Lloyd wasn’t being drafted in fantasy leagues at all and only after his surprising rise to being the Broncos #1 WR right before the season started was he given any attention and became a hot waiver wire pickup. Lloyd went on to become the primary weapon in Denver’s potent passing attack (under former coach Josh McDaniels) and finished the season with a NFL high 1,448 receiving yards. 

So why aren’t these two 2010 stud fantasy performers cracking my top 10 fantasy WR’s in 2011?

Dwayne Bowe was a stud finishing 2010, but can he do it again in 2011?

In the case of Bowe, it’s a combination of things. First, the Chiefs lost former offensive coordinator Charlie Weis. He was known for being able to put together a potent passing attack and bring out the best in a QB, and he certainly did that with mediocre Matt Cassel. Second, the Chiefs invested a first round draft pick on a WR, Jonathan Baldwin, to give them something they didn’t have last year: a complimentary WR to Bowe. The Chiefs other WR’s were either injured or pitiful last year. A healthy Dexter McCluster and Jerheme Urban to provide depth behind Bowe and Baldwin would be welcome as McCluster battled injuries much of the season and Urban missed all of last season. Third is a projected tougher schedule. While I don’t put a lot of stock in preseason strength of schedule lists (as defenses can go from good to bad, or bad to good in a single season depending on personnel and defensive coordinator changes) it is something many pundits are using as their excuse for exercising caution themselves concerning Bowe. When you add these things together, it seems unlikely Bowe is going to duplicate his 15 TD’s.

As for Lloyd, it’s a combination of things as well keeping him from cracking my list. First and foremost is the change in coaching staff. Gone is McDaniels high flying aerial circus; in steps John Fox’s power rushing attack philosophy. There’s simply going to be much greater balance between rushing and passing than there was last season and that means fewer passes attempted. The second problem is the QB situation. There’s a good chance the Broncos will find a trade partner for Kyle Orton so they can go forward with Tim Tebow at QB. Fox may prefer having Orton there as he may be reticent about going Turning things over to Tebow, but it seems likely that if a good enough offer comes in for Orton, Denver will accept it and Tebow would take over. Tebow still needs work and with an offense geared towards running the ball, it just seems unlikely Lloyd will approach his unexpected stats from 2010 in 2011.

When you add all the variables up, it becomes increasingly difficult to forecast either Bowe or Lloyd to finish in the top 10 fantasy WR’s in 2011.

2011 Early NFL Fantasy WR Sleeper and thoughts on Free Agency

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As stated in previous blogs about July 1st predicted as the date 2011NFL  fantasy player values will begin to decline from they could potentially do in the season. This is really based on the lack of practice/reps/meetings/install schemes and systems that would normally be done by now. Allot of franchises are trying to prepare for when the season will start and what they have tome to accomplish from a roster perspective.

Sure, there is going to be lots of free agents but with such a short season, you gotta look at your current roster and focus on keeping them. As I pour through rosters and reading up looking for 2011 fantasy football super sleepers like a guy Kevin Jurovich WR for the 49ers. Word out of the bay area is that this guy has really impressed the coaching staff and no WR on that roster has a starting job, but its very wise to get as many reps as you can in the off season with the potential starting Quarterback. Good story there.

That’s why I really think the NFL has to consider some grace period for teams to review/make first offers on their own guys, before all of them hitting the market at once once the new CBA is in place. This is also important to the quality of the game and at the WR position, you have to have guys that know the system. Speaking of Fantasy Wide Receivers check out how high Greg Jennings is on Russ’s top 10 2011 WR rankings for 2011, I’d say thats a bit of a reach just because there are so many other weapons on that roster.

Another thing to consider is the incoming coaches taking over NFL teams this year may have to adapt to what system the players are comfortable with the first part of the season as well. More of that happens then one thinks these days. All things to consider for what is going to be a wild 2011 fantasy football season.