Category Archives: Coaching

2011 NFL Free Agency: Teams get ready to make house calls

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With one of the most wild free agency periods in the history of sports on the verge of happening in the NFL, hopefully within a week there are some interesting points being made by: former players Daren Sharper, coaches Herm Edwards, media experts Adam Shefter and former NFL executives like Andy Brandt around what could transpire over the next two weeks. Three key points to think about:

1) Teams will focus immediately on undrafted college players then their own free agents. Unsigned college players are where the “nuggets” can be found as we know in normal years these players are signed immediately after the NFL draft. College players that were drafted by teams who already hold their rights will be the last to get signed.

2) Transactions: Probably looking at 50 transactions per team, totaling approximately 1600 transactions in the entire NFL. In a normal season those transactions are completed over 90 days, this year that could be 14 days.

3) Gone are the days of NFL free agents touring several teams and leveraging those visits to get the best deal. What is probably going to happen is players will ask teams to come to them, since there will not be enough time for them to take multiple visits. Kind of like an open house of sorts.  Can you imagine Kevin Kolb sitting in his house having NFL GM’s stopping by making the big pitch? Get your popcorn ready Kevin!

Now, back to the business of fantasy football keeping track of those transactions is going to be absolutely crazy. The team at fantasyfootballstarters.com is already feeling the crunch. Thank goodness NFL Fantasy Football Analyst Russ Bliss is enjoying a two week vacation right now and due back on July 29th, just in time to track transactions, simulate games and start rocking!

At the end of the day, its going to be quite a ride for the next three weeks!

NFL Coaches have to reverse off season player strategy

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NFL free agency allows teams to select players of immediate need so they can focus their efforts around the NFL draft selecting “best available” players so they don’t have to be rushed into a starting position. Its all about these rookies getting precious experience on the bench just ask Tom Brady or Aaron Rogers.

But now as NFL Head Coaches like Mike Smith voiced today on the NFL Network this off season is 100% about turn from what coaches prefer. So the NFL is already impacted this year. But the good news is he does agree with me and thousands of fans who are curious to see how their favorite team will address “Need vs. Best Available”.

This is exactly what I blogged about back in January this year! May not sound like much but it is a 100% reverse of what a typical off season is for free agents and teams managing their rosters.

The NFL is in a funk and as of this writing arguing about the April 6th, 2011 court hearing and if they the owners and players can get back to the bargaining table. Roger Goddell did his best to address the offer to the players, however, that set off a rash of bad press from the players thinking they were not aware of the deal. Its not going to get any better soon, however, I still stand behind my NFL prediction that they will get a deal done before the 2011 NFL Draft. Take that to the bank!

Both sides can not afford to drag sponsors and fans into their problems trust me that first TV deal that symbolizies what the NFL is for rookies coming in is not going to get tainted. Trust me.

An evocative Car-Pitt ride

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With the continued infusion of Steeler blood into the veins of the Cardinals, I can not help but to think of the 1944 merger, the stories read are almost funny in a peculiar sort of way I can almost tie that era into the present day workings and it’s not just the Rooney and Bidwill names that still remain synonymous with they’re respective organizations, the ones that made it happen then are still making it happen today?

All this CBA stuff aside teams are still preparing for business as usual. Every position is evaluated and player scrutinized. Looking at the Arizona Cardinals, they have talented football players; I believe they’re biggest issue last year was between the ears, yes this could very well be attributed to the coaches letting it get away with perhaps some complacency, still upgrades and depth is needed across the board, so where do you start?
On the offensive line we can expect Alan Faneca to retire after 14 seasons. Free agent Deuce Lutui had some issues last year, not sure if they have been fully resolved for what ever reason, be it ‘not the coaches guy’ or not, very probable he walks so this would leave nine year journeyman Jeremy Bridges and second year guy Tom Pestock at guards, Center Lyle Sendlein will need to re-sign and with only Levi Brown and Brandon Keith at the tackle positions the need for a solid utility guy up front could not be more evident which can be addressed through free agency with some very notable players that are available. As the Cardinals continue with their blend of Steeler-esque philosophy it would not surprise me to see Steelers free agent G/T Trai Essex and or even Jonathan Scott make a trip to Arizona as they know the coaches and system which couldn’t hurt and could come at a reasonable price. With the Steelers improving line and their depth, Essex could slip away to once again step in for the departing Faneca. Another name I would be interested in is the Saints Jermon Bushrod. New Orleans may get tripped up with Bushrod, they have Evans and need to get Carl Nicks wrapped up as well knowing they don’t want to lose a versatile player like Bushrod a choice will need to be made with Charles Brown as the future, the question is if the Saints are ready to commit to Brown as the full time starter if so this could leave Bushrod the odd man out.

On defense, same story, the mental aspect. This is where the Ray Horton hiring should prove to be effective and beneficial to a talented group of players.
Add some depth up front in free agency re-sign Iwebema then look to the draft for that immediate impact type player because when I look at the free agent linebackers and defensive backs I see a lot old and tired, tagged or high/over priced players; Patrick Peterson is an intriguing option but at this stage of the Cardinals needs, drafting a shut down corner just doesn’t make sense in my opinion when you should have a chance at a more versatile player, one that can provide a wider range of contributions to your team by disrupting an opponents offense one that can play up, play down, break up a pass, get in the backfield, tackle for loss, hit, pressure and sack the QB. That will make the greater impact, a linebacker the caliber of Von Miller or an Akeem Ayers could be that guy. So here’s to hope, hope that Horton has also acquired some skills in the Steeler art of drafting and developing the most intense and highly feared linebackers.

Demaryius Thomas Injured!

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Could it get any worse for the Denver Broncos?

Just 4 days after it was revealed that Eddie Royal recently had hip surgery and that it could take as much as 6 months for him to recover, Demaryius Thomas tore an Achilles tendon and will likely be out 6-8 months at least himself.

Can Demaryius Thomas overcome a torn Achilles injury?

Just about the only position you could rely on the Broncos to have any depth at was WR, and now that’s vanishing. It would be surprising if either Royal or Thomas would be able to provide any type of fantasy football help now in 2011. Royal was coming off a slight rebound season in 2010, while Thomas struggled thru an up and down rookie year with a lingering foot injury that prevented him from getting any traction in his first season. There was a lot of hope that Thomas would take a big step up in his second season, but those hopes are now dashed.

While the Broncos still have 2010 fantasy football surprise Brandon Lloyd, and steady veteran Jabar Gaffney still under contract for the 2011 season, it is widely believed that Thomas is a superior talent to both and was going to push hard for a big role in the offense. Now Lloyd will get a prime chance to prove 2010 wasn’t a fluke, and Gaffney will have more opportunities to prove he deserves to be a starting WR in the NFL.

Don’t be surprised if new head coach John Fox pays a little more attention to the WR position at the upcoming NFL Scouting Combine though. Fox has his hands full trying to rebuild a woeful Broncos defensive unit and is unlikely to invest a high pick at WR in the April NFL Draft, but he could use a lower round pick hoping to find a potential sleeper. Especially if the NFL owners and the Players Union don’t get a new Collective Bargaining Agreement worked out by April. The owners have said that the free agency period will be suspended for the 2011 season if a new agreement isn’t worked out, and that would mean that Fox would not be able to bring in any players whose contracts are up after the 2010 season. That means street free agents and the NFL draft would be his only recourse to build depth at the position.

When Fox took over in Denver, the WR position was one of the biggest strengths of the team; now it’s looking very thin. He’d better be hoping that Lloyd and Gaffney don’t fall prey to any accidental injuries during the off-season.

And the Super Bowl 45 Winner is…

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Aw heck, really it’s just too darn close to call!

Ask any group outside of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and you’re likely to get a fairly even 50/50 split on whether the Pittsburgh Steelers or Green Bay Packers will win Super Bowl 45. Just look at how the opinions vary at FantasyFootballStarters.com:

Our predictive software tool, the Lineup Analyzer, predicts Steelers to win 20-17

In my fantasy football blog I took Packers to win 24-21

We had our Forums Moderators chime in with their Super Bowl predictions and we came up with:

Michael: Steelers 31-24

James: Packers 24-19

Eric: Packers 34-20

Jeff: Steelers 24-20

Stephen: Steelers 27-21

One of our other Moderators, our IDP Guru Robert, posted on our fantasy football forums that he likes Pittsburgh 31-27. But he’s from the Pittsburgh area and I’m surprised the margin of Steelers victory isn’t higher here.

But everywhere you look, you see a divide on who will win. This isn’t like last year when the Colts were favored by a good majority. Or the year before when the Steelers were heavily favored over Arizona. And if the Patriots hadn’t choked away their playoff game against the Jets, and managed to get by the Steelers the next round, I’d be willing to bet we’d be seeing the Patriots a fairly heavy favorite.

Rashard Mendenhall could be the MVP of Super Bowl 45

But we see a lot of possibilities. While I took Aaron Rodgers to be my Super Bowl 45 MVP, I could also easily see it being Rashard Mendenhall, or Clay Matthews, or Charles Woodson, or Ben Roethlisberger, or Mike Wallace, or Troy Polamalu, or any number of other players. There are so many players who could end up being the difference in this game that it is difficult to choose from. I took Rodgers because of the popularity QB’s enjoy in the media and the fact that if the Packers do win, it’s likely the team will want Rodgers to be their MVP so they can finally exercise the Brett Favre demons that hang like a cloud over both him and the organization.

One thing is very certain though, it’s going to be a great game and there will be plenty of splits on the choices for both the winner and the MVP in the media.

Hue Jackson: The Right Choice for Oakland

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While there have been seven NFL head coaching changes this off-season, Al Davis was smart to stay in house on his choice. And while I know there are many fantasy football blogs (including mine) that have talked about some of the other moves (like Josh McDaniels taking over as the offensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams replacing departed Pat Shurmur), this one by Oakland deserves some props and provides something we’ve missed from the Raiders in recent years: hope for fantasy football production out of this team.

Hue Jackson goes from offensive coordinator to Head Coach in Oakland

The hiring of Hue Jackson to be the new head coach of the Raiders was the right move by Al Davis. Jackson was the team’s offensive coordinator in 2010 and his promotion means stability for one of the best rushing attacks in this past season. Jackson also got the Raiders to have their best season passing the football since the 2005 season. He will be keeping the same offensive system intact for the 2011 season and that bodes well for the continued development of Jason Campbell at QB.

Jackson has already stated a preference for Campbell to Bruce Gradkowski to be his QB and while Campbell was much maligned at times in 2010, he clearly is the better QB. One thing that has plagued Campbell throughout his NFL career has been a constant changing of the offensive systems he’s had to play in. It changed several times during his time in Washington and it hindered what was once considered to be a top potential QB prospect for the professional level.

Now the question is whether Jackson can get the young WR’s in Oakland to develop into solid NFL starters. Darrius Heyward-Bey is an Al Davis favorite, and while he can run like a deer, it does no good if he catches like one, too. DHB needs to work hard on his hands, and eye-hand coordination, so he doesn’t turn out to be a huge bust in the NFL. There is talent there, but it hasn’t come together yet for him and if Davis insists on Heyward-Bey being a starter at WR (and Davis usually does dictate a lot from his throne as owner) Campbell will need the inconsistent WR to take his game up a level.

An Oakland guy I’m high on as a potential fantasy football sleeper in 2011 is WR Jacoby Ford. Ford doesn’t have the size you see in many of today’s top WR’s in the NFL, but he is fast, elusive, and shows a surprising willingness despite only being 5’10″, 185 lbs, to go after the ball in the attempt to catch it. He could turn out to be a surprise for fantasy purposes in 2011 (providing the owners and the player’s union get a new NFL collective bargaining agreement in place).

There’s also Louis Murphy and Chaz Schilens, but neither has the upside of Ford and both come across more like complementary WR’s than potential “go-to” guys.

Luckily, the Raiders have a “go-to” TE in Zach Miller. Miller’s numbers from 2010 don’t wow, but when you consider he played most of the last half of the season with a sprained foot, and was clearly hampered by it for several weeks, they look more impressive. Miller has quietly emerged as one of the best pass catching TE’s in the NFL and if Jackson can get Campbell to step up to a higher level as a QB, it will mean Miller will be undervalued in fantasy drafts this year.

The Jackson promotion should also help prevent RB Darren McFadden from being a one year wonder. McFadden was a surprise fantasy football stud in 2010 starting 13 games and amassing 1,157 rushing yards (5.2 yards per carry), 47 receptions for 507 receiving yards (10.8 yards per reception), and scored 10 total touchdowns. This was the breakout year for McFadden that everyone was hoping would come in the prior two seasons since he was drafted. McFadden was actually being drafted after Michael Bush (another talented RB on Oakland, but not nearly the playmaker McFadden is) in 2010 fantasy drafts. McFadden looks to be a potential top 10 RB on 2011 fantasy football rankings and his chances are much better with Jackson still in charge of the offense.

Usually the Raiders are the butt of jokes when it comes to producing impactful fantasy football prospects, but that won’t be the case in 2011. With Hue Jackson, they got this one right.

Great sources of fantasy football draft advice

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Each week leading up to opening weekend I am going to go around and call out great sources of fantasy football draft advice, from some of my best sources. First, lets start of with NFL Fantasy Football Analyst Russ Bliss on his 2010 fantasy football draft Quarterback Rankings. Some commentary around Manning’s efforts to be the #1 pick, but overall I really like his list.

The team at FFToolbox does a solid job with their fantasy football rankings. I have known them for years and they provide solid analysis year round. They know their stuff.

Sara at FFLibrarian does and outstanding job of recommending great content and sites to choose from this time of year. This week it covers undervalued/overvalued fantasy players. Again, another great source who does her due diligence when recommending solid sources.

When it comes to NFL team analysis nobody beats my good friend Andy Benoit at NFLTouchdown.com. He’s working on this years team previews and with this list of NFL raving fan writers going at it as well, there’s tons of great stuff updated all the time.

Thats it for this week!

Fantasy Football has ties to Don Coryell

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Those were the days in the early 80′s the San Diego Chargers had the greatest NFL offense and guys like Fouts, Joyner, Muncie , Winslow and Jefferson all were fantasy football studs.

Most of you might not remember but the Chargers were frozen out of going to a Super Bowl they probably would have won (vs. my Niners) based on how good of an offense they were. Their defense was not that good but man could Coryell get an offense going.

He was brilliant when it came to 3-4 WR sets the Raiders were about speed these guys were talent and timing. Fouts, not a pretty thrower, was the perfect Quarterback. Coach Coryell was an innovator and gambler who believed in his players enought to trust them when the game was on the line. Those were the last of the AFC/AFL “air it out” teams from the early days, lots of points and great for the fans.

Coach you will be missed and hope to see you in Canton.

Da Bears 2010…Greatest Show on Snow?

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Running back helpWhat were the McCaskey’s thinking hiring Mike (Mrs. Doutbfire) Martz? This is a storied franchise known for smash mouth football, tough defense and a POWER running game and has produced some of the most notable and prolific backs in NFL history such as:

Red Grange
Bronko Nagurski
Beattie Feather
Rick Casares
Gary J. Famiglietti
Gail Sayers
Brian Piccolo
Walter (Sweetness) Payton
Neal Anderson
Matt Shuey
And most recently Matt Forte

So to honor that tradtion you hire pass happy Mike Martz?

Memo to Chicago…there’s this stuff that happens to water come late October, November, December and January…it’s white, lumpy and cold. I believe they call it…snow and as I recall don’t they call Chicago the “Windy City”! In case you forgot Bear Fan you play outside!

Besides your eight (8) home games all outside you’re at the New York Football Giants in October (outside), Buffalo in November (outside) and the Packers in January. (outside) You’ll catch a nice sunny day there with 7` snowdrifts and 40 below! So 10 of your 16 games are outside in cold weather…get ready kids for the Greatest Show…On Snow! (And a 7-9 record!)

OK forget all that…let’s look at the coaching record shall we? Mike Martz, coaching career both as a head coach starting in 2001 to present:

2001 (14-2) lost the Super Bowl to New England (Dick Vermeil’s team BTW)
2002 (7-9) doesn’t make the playoffs
2003 (12-4) bounced 1st round
2004 (8-8) doesn’t make the playoffs
2005 Leave of absence but would have probably been fired anyway
2006 Interviews with several teams for HC (including the pass happy Raiders and Al Davis) no dice…finally hired as OC in Detroit their record that year (3-13)
2007 (7-9) after a 6-2 starting record the Lions let him go end of the season.
2008 hired as 49ers OC they go 7-9, blown out by Mike Singletary (ex-Bear BTW)
2009 Unemployed
2010 Hired as Bears OC.

That bring us to present…the 2010 Jay Cutler quarterbacked Bears. A million dollar Kurt Warner arm with a 2-cent head and a Diva attitude…yea let me know how that one works out! Martz’ favorite kind of running back…small, quick, pass catching type (i.e. Marshall Faulk) the Bears two main studs…Forte and Chester Taylor…oops!

Doesn’t matter kids right we’re going to pass the ball so in the Torry Holt role 6`0” outside burner we have… Devin (who) Aromashodu 6`2” a cast off from Indy…he couldn’t make it on pass happy Indy’s squad! In the Isaac Bruce role 6` 0” opposite Aromashodu is every bodies favorite shrimp albeit a fast one, 5`11” (in heels) Devin Hester. Hey I just thought of something the Bears will have a Double D set of…never mind! Lastly in the Az-Zahir Hakim roll slot burner we have Johnny (I can run faster than him) Knox.

In the history of bad idea’s and miss-matches this one will go down as a monumental disaster it will cost Lovie Smith his job, cause Matt Forte to be Mr. Irrelevant and set the Bears back an entire season. (Maybe several)

If you made it this far thanks for reading my first blog and that’s the view from my chair!

Arno