Category Archives: Defenses

Fantasy Playoffs League Rankings for Wild Card Weekend

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The NFL Playoffs are here and like many, I am playing in a playoffs fantasy league.

 

Funny to think that 14 years ago I had to create one from my own imagination as no sites offered anything like it. I also had to reach into the way back machine and use pencils and paper to keep track of the team, their players, their stats, and add up the results by hand.

 

My, how technology has changed things since then!

 

But everyone is looking for players rankings, and depending on the type of league you play in, the rankings can vary. If you play in one where each round is a brand new slate, it makes life easier. If you’re in the type of league where you have to choose with an eye on who is likely to be in the Super Bowl, it changes the whole fantasy football draft dynamic.

 

For those in the latter types of league, the fantasy football draft analyzer software at FantasyFootballStarters.com has projected out each round of the playoffs thru the Super Bowl with the projected stats and rankings of each player at each position. Using its game prediction algorithm I have also written a commentary of the Power Analyzer Playoffs and Super Bowl predictions for each game. I was kind of surprised at the results the Analyzer had come to.

 

For those who prefer a little more human intuitiveness, I also have my own Super Bowl 46 and playoffs predictions posted at FFS as well. Even though they are my own predictions, I am a little surprised at who I picked, too. Usually Championships are won by playing great defense. But I see a matchup between two offensive juggernauts.

 

In my most recent fantasy football blogs post, I go over the Wild Card Weekend matchups and provide some extra commentary about each matchup. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the first round as every matchup finds itself having valid arguments to be made for either side winning each game.

 

As for fantasy playoffs player rankings for wild card weekend, here’s what our fantasy football lineup analyzer has players ranked based on a simple standard scoring system:

 

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees will also be a great playoffs league fantasy QB!

1) Drew Brees

2) Matt Ryan

3) Matt Stafford

4) Eli Manning

5) T.J. Yates

6) Ben Roethlisberger

7) Andy Dalton

8) Tim Tebow

 

No surprises here. The NFC teams are all stacked with great QB’s from a fantasy perspective while the AFC teams each have question marks. Kind of surprising Yates is the top AFC QB but he did have 300 yards and 2 TD’s in a week 14 matchup against the Bengals during the regular season.

 

Running Backs

1) Darren Sproles

2) Arian Foster

3) Ahmad Bradshaw

4) Isaac Redman

5) Kevin Smith

6) Michael Turner

7) Pierre Thomas

8) Willis McGahee

9) Brandon Jacobs

10) Cedric Benson

 

Sproles is a boom or bust #1 RB this week. Foster is a safer choice but he struggled for only 41 yards against the Bengals earlier in the year. Surprising Bradshaw is so high considering the Falcons run defense was top 10 this season. Redman’s a bit of a wild card but if Pittsburgh’s protecting a lead I can see it.

 

Wide Receivers

1) Marques Colston

2) Roddy White

3) Julio Jones

4) Calvin Johnson

5) Victor Cruz

6) Robert Meachem

7) Hakeem Nicks

8) Antonio Brown

9) Andre Johnson

10) Mike Wallace

 

Both Falcons WR’s making it in the top 3 isn’t surprising considering how poorly the Giants secondary has played and how hot both guys have been recently. Meachem at 6th is a boom or bust type of pick, but it helps him that Lance Moore isn’t expected to play. A little surprised A.J. Green didn’t crack the top 10 but his production since his shoulder injury has been down, Dalton’s play has cooled off, and the Texans are a top 5 pass defense.

 

Tight Ends

1) Jimmy Graham

2) Brandon Pettigrew

3) Tony Gonzalez

4) Jermaine Gresham

5) Jake Ballard

6) Joel Dreessen

7) Tony Scheffler

8) Owen Daniels

9) Travis Beckum

10) Heath Miller

 

No argument from me here at any spot. Dreessen over Daniels makes sense as Dreessen has been the preferred goal line target. No surprise at all no Denver TE’s are listed. Will Tebow complete more than 8 passes this week?

 

Kickers

1) Mike Nugent

2) John Kasay

3) Neil Rackers

4) Matt Bryant

5) Jason Hanson

6) Shaun Suisham

7) Lawrence Tynes

8) Matt Prater

 

Nugent as the top kicker but Cincinnati to lose the game? Guess the software program sees FG’s instead of TD’s in the Bengals immediate future.

 

Defenses/Special Teams

1) Cincinnati Bengals

2) Pittsburgh Steelers

3) Atlanta Falcons

4) New Orleans Saints

5) Houston Texans

6) Denver Broncos

7) Detroit Lions

8) New York Giants

 

Very surprised to see a team that gets sacks like the Giants do ranked 8th. Also surprised the Bengals place 1st overall despite not being predicted to win the game. To be fair, the Texans did have 4 fumbles in their regular season meeting so that accounts for something.

IF NFL Strike keeps going..July 1st predicted date for fantasy player value decline

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There you have it I have put a stake in the ground with a date I predict will begin the process of declining “potential overall NFL fantasy player productivity value for the 2011 season” if the players and owners are not operating by July 1st.

Simply stated, after that date 2011 fantasy football picks total potential productivity value is predicted to decline each and every day at some level, based on length of time to get ready for any length of a season. How can that be? Easy answer: 1) Teams won’t even have their full rosters (no free agency, draft picks signed and preparing for camp, 2) As of July 1st, they will only have 60 days to implement and practice their offense, defense and special teams, 3) They will have missed over 200 hours of Organized Team Activities,4) Hundreds of hours studying with their peers and the bonding and building of trust within teammates and their leaders.

Behaviorally its known that any group to form a team needs at least 90 days to become somewhat cohesive.  Take away 1/3rd of that productive time even if  you do have returning team members from the previous year and its still an up hill climb.

The biggest question is each day that goes by what is the drop in productivity?  My experience with player value stat predictions, pouring through results and optimization algorithms RSGFS.com has created leads me to believe that we can see between .5% and 1% each day. This means if some players could see their total potential value drop significantly, without them being directly involved. Now what does that mean. It means any unit: offense, defense, special teams is only as good as their weakest link. Which means if a great RB has an OL that has missed significant time away from practice- then time is against them. Steven Jackson, RB Rams in years back is a good example where his “total potential productivity value” was reduced due to poor play at key units: QB, OL and last year he saw improvement based on those units becoming much more productive.

So what am I really saying? Well, lets say.. if Arian Foster is predicted to have: 1400 yards rushing, 550 yards receiving and 13 TD’s in a full productive season (all off season activities). Then a month is missed in practice (say all of August) you could sure expect his overall potential full productivity take a hit by 15%” The revised productivity value would be something like: 1200 yards rushing, 475 yards receiving and 10 TD’s.

Football requires more team practice and continuity than Basketball and Baseball, take into consideration their seasons are even longer. Easy math: larger the team size (i.e. 22 players offense and defense) more time required to make them productive!

NFL 2011; Year of the Defense

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There has been quite a rave going on about the depth of quality collegiate talent entering the next level with a greater percentage projected to make immediate impacts for their new teams. Tempering our expectations we will see the obvious variable degrees of arch in the learning curves as some will show sooner then others, some will be tossed into the fire.

Others will be eased into action while still others will flame out and of course all this lock-out stuff makes it even tougher for the ones trying to land a job, this on-going issue can only hinder the process of progress for the new and unfamiliar so if the lock out continues to the point of canceling preseason games with teams having little to no training camps then I will expect the 2011 NFL season will go down in history as the ‘Year of the Defense’. That means more sacks, turnovers and defensive TD then seen before, I will suspect this at the start of the season and expect it to continue through out the year as the offenses that are behind the eight-ball so to speak will be taken advantage of and become a feast for defenses that will show more aggression based off that premise alone. You have to have an idea the defensive Coordinators understand offenses need time to develop into an efficient mechanism, not being able to build the continuity or get into a rhythm offenses may find it difficult to get clicking becoming vulnerable to execution failures. Living in Phoenix for many decades I have witnessed bad football with more execution failures then any fan should want to see from their home team and these guy’s had mini camps, OTA’s, four weeks of training camp and four preseason games. Not a comfortable thought as time is being lost. Perhaps soon we will be hearing the clamoring of placing asterisk next to the 2011 season. So in the event of the aforementioned coming to pass I would not be surprised to hear the opinions in February on how ‘They should have just scrapped the season’

Ravens Injury Woes Are a Fantasy Owners Dream

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The Baltimore Ravens depleted secondary became more skeletal recently with the loss of Domonique Foxworth to an ACL injury. He joins 2009’s starting cornerbacks Fabian Washington and Lardarius Webb as the walking wounded of Baltimore’s pass defense when both went down to ACL injuries in 2009. Fabian Washington was cleared for practice in training camp recently but no one knows when Webb will be back. Foxworth was slated to start in the backfield when he went down last week.

Ed Reed, the Raven all-pro starting safety is recovering from hip reconstruction surgery and does not know when he will return. Does this spell disaster for the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl run? Well it could, but some fantasy football owners are taking notice of the weakness and are preparing to take full advantage of it.

The Ravens have a good but aging defensive line. However, they can put pressure on the quarterback. Sergio Kindle, their rookie linebacker was supposed to start this season but fractured his skull recently and no one knows when he will come back. The key indicator here is Ed Reed. He is what makes the Ravens secondary tick, and without him they will be lost. Reed is to the Ravens as Troy Polamalu is to the Steelers. He is the heart of the pass coverage, and without him, the Ravens will be pure vanilla in the secondary on Sundays.

Fantasy owners should take note of this in their upcoming drafts especially if Reed is put on the PUP list for the first six weeks. The Ravens will be scorched in pass defense which means that they might have to score more points than ever before just to win or stay in a game. This should elevate the draft status of Joe Flacco, Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, and especially Ray Rice, as he was the leading running back in 2009 with 63 receptions. The pressure will be on for all of these players to over- produce.

This is a situation that all fantasy owners should monitor and take advantage of if you can in 2010.

James

IDP Rookies Who Could Shine in 2010

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Offensive players usually take a while to develop into quality fantasy prospects, Individual Defensive Players usually do not.  It’s not that a player won’t break out in year two or three as it takes most offensive players to do, it’s that quality defensive players play earlier and have more opportunities to show what they can do as rookies.  Here is a list of quality IDP rookies you should be keeping an eye on as training camps get started.  If you can pick some of these guys up in your rookie draft, you may hit a home run in the first inning.

No Brainers

Rolando McClain – LB – Oakland – Picked 9th in the draft and the Raiders traded their former starting Middle Linebacker during the draft to make room for him.  He’s smart, fast, big and strong and will be the starting LB in the middle of the Raider defense for many years to come.

Eric Berry – SS – Kansas City – Staying in the AFC West, Eric Berry was actually taken before McClain, 5th in the draft and could be a transformative figure on the KC defense.  He’s quick, a hard hitter and a playmaker.  You may not get him after the 3rd round of your rookie league, so you’re going to have to pick him up early.

Likely Starters

Earl Thomas – FS – Seattle – Thomas will start at FS for the birds and while he’s not as accomplished as Eric Berry and he’s not a strong safety, which usually garners more fantasy stats, he will be a starter on a defense that probably will see the field quite a bit.

Tyson Alualu – DT – Jacksonville – He’s going to start undoubtedly, the question is how much fantasy value will he have.  DTs typically don’t have much value but once in a while a Warren Sapp pops up and is worth holding.  My guess is that it won’t happen here, but Alualu does have an opportunity to start.

Koa Misi – LB – Miami – This guy has a motor and will start for the Fins what with the release of aging Joey Porter and Jason Taylor.  He’ll be an OLB in a 3-4 scheme that is planning on being very aggressive this season, so Misi could be in for a lot of disruptive plays.  Think of what Mike Nolan’s defense did for Elvis Dumervil last season.  Nolan is Miami’s DC this season.

Jared Odrick – DE – Miami – Don’t get too excited, he’s a DE in a 3-4 scheme which usually doesn’t garner much fantasy points.  That being said, he will start most likely and get an opportunity to make plays.  Pick him up in deeper leagues.

Brandon Spikes – LB – New England – It remains to be seen whether he starts or not but Belichek tends to favor playing young talent over veteran bit players.  Spikes was very highly regarded coming out of College.  He’s big and strong and had 6 interceptions, 4 for TDs during his time at Florida.  Spikes will be an ILB in the Patriots 3-4 scheme.

Brandon Graham – DE – Philadelphia – Graham has only Juqua Parker to beat in order to start for Philly as a 4-3 DE.  As the 13th pick in the draft you can bet on him getting his chance.  The Eagles defense is always aggressive and up the field so Graham is in a great situation to pick up some decent stats as a rookie.

TJ Ward – FS – Cleveland – Ward will be playing on a defense that will see the field a lot. He’s talented and fast and can make a splash this season.

Nate Allen – FS – Philadelphia – Philly was aging in the defensive backfield but just got younger with this guy.  Remember how productive Brian Dawkins was in Philly?  Nate Allen could be that guy in a couple of years.  In the meantime he will be learning the game as a starter.

Daryl Washington – LB – Arizona – With Karlos Dansby gone, Washington will take over as a starting ILB in Arizona’s 3-4 scheme.  Washington seemed more fitting for a 4-3 MLB as he was in college at TCU.  He’s undersized and quick as lighting so he will have his changes to produce in this defense.

Getting Minutes

Jason Worilds – LB – Pittsburgh – Worilds is stuck behind the best pair of OLBs in the game in Pittsburgh’s James Harrison and Lamar Woodley.  That being said, He’s one injury away from being a starter most likely on a very good defensive team.  He will also undoubtedly get spot duty in relief of the starters in order to continue his development.

Derrick Morgan – DE – Tennessee – Morgan has been slowed by injuries this summer so it remains to be seen whether he will start.  If he doesn’t, look for him to play a lot and also develop into a starter by next season.  He’s fast, relentless and the Titans didn’t draft him to sit on the bench!

Rennie Curran – LB – Tennessee – Curran is stuck behind Stephen Tulloch in Tennessee at MLB so it’s unlikely that he gets a ton of playing time this season.  The reason he is on this list is that he was very highly regarded coming out of Georgia and it Tulloch doesn’t produce or gets injured Curran will be the main man in the middle.

Jason Pierre-Paul – DE – NY Giants – Pierre-Paul is a physical specimen but also a work in progress.  He started in football late and only played at South Florida for one season.  He is behind Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka and Osi Umenyiora but he will be in the rotation.  If injuries occur as they did last year, JPP will be there to pick up the slack.

Sean Weatherspoon – LB – Atlanta – Another guy stuck behind two pretty good OLBs in Atlanta but will get some minutes this season and is an injury away from starting.  Weatherspoon is fast and agile and can be distruptive if given the chance.

Jerry Hughes – DE – Indianapolis – Much like Jason Worilds, Hughes is stuck behind the best pair of DEs in the game in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.  But again, both were injured during the Super Bowl run last season and Hughes is in line for plenty of reps as these guys get older.  In a year or two he could well replace Mathis.

Sergio Kindle – LB – Baltimore – Will be moving from a 4-3 DE in college to a 3-4 OLB in the NFL and will be in the rotation in Baltimore.  He slid in the draft but landed in a great situation.

Jermaine Cunningham – LB – New England – Other mover from 4-3 DE in college to 3-4 OLB in the NFL, his only competition to start at this point is Derrick Burgess.  Look for Cunningham to be in the rotation to start the season but could be the starter by the end of it.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy – Only One Defense

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FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT STRATEGY – ONE DEFENSE

By now you have seen most preliminary player rankings for the 2010 Fantasy football season; you’re getting into the mock drafts and analyzing Average Draft Positions seeing if you can get a feel of where your targeted fantasy football picks maybe drafted, of course not all live drafts fall in-line with the mock drafts and ADP’s making a keen draft strategy even more important when suddenly needing to navigate the twist’s and turns you may encounter. The term; ‘It only takes that one’ can be applied to so many aspect of life including your Fantasy Football Draft, Like it only takes that one guy in your league to throw the whole draft out-of-whack, while this may lead to panic mode for some who feel now they must continue the run on the next top flight positions, don’t be swayed, stay the course because you just got lucky after all it is had been said luck is when preparation meets opportunity.

Your prepared and now to take advantage of the opportunity. Then there is; it only takes that one stud player to grab your leagues Championship hardware and earn league immortality (Marshall reference) But finding that one Defense is a shot in the dark, historical data suggest the difference between the #1 scoring Defense and the # 10 scoring is generally around 3 points, for example the top Defense is averaging 16 points a game the #10 is averaging 13 pts a game. A defense I am targeting is the Chargers. Two things here I like; is week 10 BYE, this gives me more time to evaluate performers, busts and injured players on my roster giving peace of mind in knowing its ok to drop this guy for bye week filler, this decision is made easier in week ten then in week 4 or 5. Second is the Schedule, it looks to be very favorable with games v K.C JAX, SEA, AZ, OAK STL to start the season of course I am basing this theory on the fact that these Offense’s may struggle due to various QB situations.

Chargers Defense is showing an ADP 161 (14th Rd) The Draft rank on the FantasyFootballStarters.com Draft Analyzer has the Chargers Defense coming in at #88, 8th rd with 173 points; my rank has the S.D defense at 194 pts on a conservative estimate with a higher upside due to schedule. For a Defense I have projected to flirt in the 200 points ranges makes this deep fantasy football draft pick worth every bit of that late round selection to me.

A key to winning – picking a solid Defense

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Early Fantasy Football Defensive predictions- at the top: Vikings, Chargers, Cowboys, Eagles, Jets, Patriots, Cards…Thats an early look at the top defensive picks for the 2010 season courtesy of fantasyfootballstarters.com. They keep all their NFL predictions updated daily throughout the season.

Fantasy Defense help

Defenses are often overlooked but they can get you lots of points if you choose wisely. Pay attention to they type of coaching changes at the D- Coordinator level as they tend to move frequently. All part of a good fantasy football draft strategy.