Archive for Quarterbacks

2015: Can you buy-low on Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck right now?

If you play in dynasty fantasy football leagues, well, then you know that many fantasy owners often get emotional after losing a league. Thus, the crafty fantasy football owner can take advantage of this by buying low on players that recently disappointed certain fantasy football owners.

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, despite having solid fantasy football seasons in 2014, disappointed fantasy worlds when push came to shove. Rodgers finished the season kind of rough, passing for just 185 yards and 0TDs (2INTs) in Week 15, and he only threw for 3TDs combine in Weeks 16 and 17. Toss in a disappointing final playoff game (22-28 loss to Seattle) and you might have some fantasy owners not thinking clearly when it comes to retaining the passer. Will you steal him away from the current owner? No. That isn’t likely. However, can you buy the 45TD-capable passer at a value you won’t be able to even sniff come August? I say yes, at least in some cases. So, try taking a stab at acquiring Rodgers on the cheap, and cheap is outside the top 15 overall value (vs. where he should be, which is top 5-10 overall value).

Andrew Luck

The same can be said for Andrew Luck, who just disappointed Colts fans in general via his team’s 45-7 Conference Championship loss to New England. Plus, Luck went from dropping some insane fantasy football numbers early on in 2014 (300+ and 2-4TD games) to throwing 187, 109 and 160 yards in Weeks 15-17. And, again, toss in his last playoff performance, you’re looking at some doubt being entered into the equation. Again, like with Rodgers above, you won’t steal him away from his current fantasy owner, however, I can certainly envision it being an easier task acquiring Luck after all of this consistent disappointment.

Conclusion

No one is going to give away either Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck in 2015 fantasy football dynasty leagues, but now is the time to try and acquire these guys in dynasty given they are coming off disappointing finishes to their 2014 fantasy football seasons. They are rock-solid locks as 40TD-capable passers moving forward, and both arguably have top 5-10 overall value in any format you look at. You might be able to acquire both at top 15 overall value, which is a huge, huge advantage if you can pull it off!

2015: Will Teddy Bridgewater throws 54 MPH?

We love bringing all of you useful fantasy football resources/links, and these Sports Science videos help identify some of the hidden measurables in upcoming NFL athletes. Teddy Bridgewater could be in for a big 2015 NFL season, and while he will need Cordarrelle Patterson to take that next step, there is a lot to be excited about with Bridgewater, and this video is a reminder of some of those things. Buy-low in all of your 2015 fantasy football leagues.

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2013 Free Agent Quarterbacks Lack Appeal

The class of 2013 NFL free agent Quarterbacks lacks a lot of star power. Of the 30 or so QB’s who qualify for free agency in 2013, there are only maybe 3 potential starters. And the best name on the list by far, Joe Flacco, is very unlikely to go anywhere as it is expected the Baltimore Ravens will either sign him to a long term deal, or use the Franchise tag designation on him.

Outside of Flacco, the only names of note are Matt Moore and David Garrard. Moore spent 2012 warming the bench behind rookie Ryan Tannehill while Garrard was cut in preseason when it was discovered he was going to require a couple of months to recover from what was believed to be just a routine knee scope. Neither QB is a sure thing, but both are likely to at least get a chance to compete for starting jobs in the NFL as there are several teams who are Quarterback needy.

There are 4 other names that could be intriguing in the 2013 NFL free agents market though.

It’s widely expected that the Seattle Seahawks are likely to release Matt Flynn after he failed to beat out rookie Russell Wilson for the starting job in 2012. It’s also believed the Buffalo Bills are going to release Ryan Fitzpatrick after another season where he showed some skills, but failed to be consistently effective. San Francisco probably will release Alex Smith if Colin Kaepernick doesn’t get injured in the Super Bowl as Smith will be paid too highly to be kept on as a backup. Finally, there’s a 50/50 chance the Arizona Cardinals will release Kevin Kolb. Kolb performed well for Arizona in 2012, when he was healthy. Trouble is Kolb never seems to be able to stay healthy enough to play for long. And with him scheduled to make $9 million in salary in 2013, the Cardinals (who are just over the projected salary cap for 2013), the team could decide to part ways with him.

These 4 current non-free agent QB’s could upgrade the QB free agent talent pool immensely. Not because they’re great QB’s; but rather because they are simply better than a list that includes such names as Jason Campbell, Rex Grossman, and Tarvaris Jackson (just to name a few).

So where would each of those 4 fit best?

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Best Fit: Arizona Cardinals

Why? Fitzpatrick has proven to be capable of providing big plays and moving a team thru the air, but his biggest deficiency is arm strength. He has started the past couple of season very well, but has progressively gotten worse as the season goes along and the weather gets colder. The solution there is for him to be in a warm weather city. And he not only would get that in Arizona, but he’d also get the comforts of a dome. He easily would be better than what the Cardinals went thru at the position last year when Kolb was unable to play.

After sitting on the bench again in 2012, Matt Flynn could be a starting QB in 2013 if released by Seattle

Matt Flynn

Best Fit: Buffalo Bills

Why? Flynn is not going to command a lot of money on the free agent market and with the Bills looking to add someone who isn’t a re-tread and can bridge the gap for a young QB for future seasons. He also offers up the appeal of having untapped potential himself. He proved in Green Bay that his arm strength is good enough to get by in the cold and he probably would love a chance to play against Miami twice as they passed on him last year in free agency despite him having been a natural fit there.

Alex Smith

Best Fit: Jacksonville Jaguars

Why? Smith would fit in Jacksonville really well as there are some similarities between him and Blaine Gabbert. I don’t think the Jags are ready to just give up on Gabbert yet and Smith’s expereinces in the NFL could be a great teaching tool for Gabbert. Plus, Gabbert is not a threat to start over Smith, and neither is Chad Henne, really. Jacksonville needs a stabilizing force at QB and Smith’s accuracy would be a good complement to the strong rushing attack the Jags possess with Maurice Jones-Drew there.

Kevin Kolb

Best Fit: Kansas City

Why? It’s fairly obvious. In Kansas City, Kolb would reunite with coach Andy Reid and bring an instant understanding of the new offensive system Reid intends to run in KC. After what the Chiefs have gotten out of their QB’s the past few years, Kolb would be welcome there and help make the Reid transition easy for an offense that needs not just time to adjust to it, but someone who can teach it on the field.

 

Joe Flacco: Top 10 Fantasy QB in 2013?

Is Joe Flacco a top 10 fantasy QB in 2013?

Will Joe Flacco be an elite fantasy quarterback in 2013?

That’s a question many fantasy owners are going to have come around fantasy football draft time.

In a recent article on early 2013 fantasy football rankings at the quarterback position, I listed my top 10 fantasy QB’s for the upcoming season and in doing so, I found myself not just considering Flacco to NOT be amongst the elite fantasy QB’s, but he didn’t even crack my top 10 list!

While getting to a Super Bowl is great for Flacco’s development as an NFL quarterback, it doesn’t make him a great fantasy QB. Look at his 2012 statistical production:

3,817 passing yards, 22 pass TD’s, 10 interceptions. 22 rush yards, 3 rush TD’s

Those are good, but in terms of fantasy production against other QB’s, Flacco ranked 14th in passing yards, 15th in pass TD’s, 41st in rush yards, and 9th in rush TD’s. Hardly an impelling statistical season. In fact, Flacco’s stat line in 2012 closely resembled what he did the 3 prior seasons:

2011: 3,610 pass yards, 20 TD’s, 12 int’s; 88 rush yards, 1 TD

2010: 3,622 pass yards, 25 TD’s, 10 int’s; 84 rush yards, 1 TD

2009: 3,613 pass yards, 21 TD’s, 12 int’s; 56 rush yards, 0 TD’s

In order for Flacco to get into the top 10 fantasy QB’s (let alone be ranked amongst the elite fantasy passers), he needs to step up his production in a big way. The elite fantasy QB’s callers are regular throwing for over 4,000 yards and 30+ TD’s.

Can Flacco get to that point where he’s producing the big time numbers? Definitely! But is that likely to happen in 2013? I don’t think so. I expect to see him get about 4,000 passing yards and toss 26-28 TD’s in 2013. Those numbers may allow him to challenge for top 10 in 2013 fantasy football quarterback rankings, but then again, there are several others who will challenge for that, too.