Category Archives: Quarterbacks

Fantasy Playoffs League Rankings for Wild Card Weekend

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The NFL Playoffs are here and like many, I am playing in a playoffs fantasy league.

 

Funny to think that 14 years ago I had to create one from my own imagination as no sites offered anything like it. I also had to reach into the way back machine and use pencils and paper to keep track of the team, their players, their stats, and add up the results by hand.

 

My, how technology has changed things since then!

 

But everyone is looking for players rankings, and depending on the type of league you play in, the rankings can vary. If you play in one where each round is a brand new slate, it makes life easier. If you’re in the type of league where you have to choose with an eye on who is likely to be in the Super Bowl, it changes the whole fantasy football draft dynamic.

 

For those in the latter types of league, the fantasy football draft analyzer software at FantasyFootballStarters.com has projected out each round of the playoffs thru the Super Bowl with the projected stats and rankings of each player at each position. Using its game prediction algorithm I have also written a commentary of the Power Analyzer Playoffs and Super Bowl predictions for each game. I was kind of surprised at the results the Analyzer had come to.

 

For those who prefer a little more human intuitiveness, I also have my own Super Bowl 46 and playoffs predictions posted at FFS as well. Even though they are my own predictions, I am a little surprised at who I picked, too. Usually Championships are won by playing great defense. But I see a matchup between two offensive juggernauts.

 

In my most recent fantasy football blogs post, I go over the Wild Card Weekend matchups and provide some extra commentary about each matchup. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the first round as every matchup finds itself having valid arguments to be made for either side winning each game.

 

As for fantasy playoffs player rankings for wild card weekend, here’s what our fantasy football lineup analyzer has players ranked based on a simple standard scoring system:

 

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees will also be a great playoffs league fantasy QB!

1) Drew Brees

2) Matt Ryan

3) Matt Stafford

4) Eli Manning

5) T.J. Yates

6) Ben Roethlisberger

7) Andy Dalton

8) Tim Tebow

 

No surprises here. The NFC teams are all stacked with great QB’s from a fantasy perspective while the AFC teams each have question marks. Kind of surprising Yates is the top AFC QB but he did have 300 yards and 2 TD’s in a week 14 matchup against the Bengals during the regular season.

 

Running Backs

1) Darren Sproles

2) Arian Foster

3) Ahmad Bradshaw

4) Isaac Redman

5) Kevin Smith

6) Michael Turner

7) Pierre Thomas

8) Willis McGahee

9) Brandon Jacobs

10) Cedric Benson

 

Sproles is a boom or bust #1 RB this week. Foster is a safer choice but he struggled for only 41 yards against the Bengals earlier in the year. Surprising Bradshaw is so high considering the Falcons run defense was top 10 this season. Redman’s a bit of a wild card but if Pittsburgh’s protecting a lead I can see it.

 

Wide Receivers

1) Marques Colston

2) Roddy White

3) Julio Jones

4) Calvin Johnson

5) Victor Cruz

6) Robert Meachem

7) Hakeem Nicks

8) Antonio Brown

9) Andre Johnson

10) Mike Wallace

 

Both Falcons WR’s making it in the top 3 isn’t surprising considering how poorly the Giants secondary has played and how hot both guys have been recently. Meachem at 6th is a boom or bust type of pick, but it helps him that Lance Moore isn’t expected to play. A little surprised A.J. Green didn’t crack the top 10 but his production since his shoulder injury has been down, Dalton’s play has cooled off, and the Texans are a top 5 pass defense.

 

Tight Ends

1) Jimmy Graham

2) Brandon Pettigrew

3) Tony Gonzalez

4) Jermaine Gresham

5) Jake Ballard

6) Joel Dreessen

7) Tony Scheffler

8) Owen Daniels

9) Travis Beckum

10) Heath Miller

 

No argument from me here at any spot. Dreessen over Daniels makes sense as Dreessen has been the preferred goal line target. No surprise at all no Denver TE’s are listed. Will Tebow complete more than 8 passes this week?

 

Kickers

1) Mike Nugent

2) John Kasay

3) Neil Rackers

4) Matt Bryant

5) Jason Hanson

6) Shaun Suisham

7) Lawrence Tynes

8) Matt Prater

 

Nugent as the top kicker but Cincinnati to lose the game? Guess the software program sees FG’s instead of TD’s in the Bengals immediate future.

 

Defenses/Special Teams

1) Cincinnati Bengals

2) Pittsburgh Steelers

3) Atlanta Falcons

4) New Orleans Saints

5) Houston Texans

6) Denver Broncos

7) Detroit Lions

8) New York Giants

 

Very surprised to see a team that gets sacks like the Giants do ranked 8th. Also surprised the Bengals place 1st overall despite not being predicted to win the game. To be fair, the Texans did have 4 fumbles in their regular season meeting so that accounts for something.

IF NFL Strike keeps going..July 1st predicted date for fantasy player value decline

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There you have it I have put a stake in the ground with a date I predict will begin the process of declining “potential overall NFL fantasy player productivity value for the 2011 season” if the players and owners are not operating by July 1st.

Simply stated, after that date 2011 fantasy football picks total potential productivity value is predicted to decline each and every day at some level, based on length of time to get ready for any length of a season. How can that be? Easy answer: 1) Teams won’t even have their full rosters (no free agency, draft picks signed and preparing for camp, 2) As of July 1st, they will only have 60 days to implement and practice their offense, defense and special teams, 3) They will have missed over 200 hours of Organized Team Activities,4) Hundreds of hours studying with their peers and the bonding and building of trust within teammates and their leaders.

Behaviorally its known that any group to form a team needs at least 90 days to become somewhat cohesive.  Take away 1/3rd of that productive time even if  you do have returning team members from the previous year and its still an up hill climb.

The biggest question is each day that goes by what is the drop in productivity?  My experience with player value stat predictions, pouring through results and optimization algorithms RSGFS.com has created leads me to believe that we can see between .5% and 1% each day. This means if some players could see their total potential value drop significantly, without them being directly involved. Now what does that mean. It means any unit: offense, defense, special teams is only as good as their weakest link. Which means if a great RB has an OL that has missed significant time away from practice- then time is against them. Steven Jackson, RB Rams in years back is a good example where his “total potential productivity value” was reduced due to poor play at key units: QB, OL and last year he saw improvement based on those units becoming much more productive.

So what am I really saying? Well, lets say.. if Arian Foster is predicted to have: 1400 yards rushing, 550 yards receiving and 13 TD’s in a full productive season (all off season activities). Then a month is missed in practice (say all of August) you could sure expect his overall potential full productivity take a hit by 15%” The revised productivity value would be something like: 1200 yards rushing, 475 yards receiving and 10 TD’s.

Football requires more team practice and continuity than Basketball and Baseball, take into consideration their seasons are even longer. Easy math: larger the team size (i.e. 22 players offense and defense) more time required to make them productive!

4 Rookie QB’s Starting in 2011?

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Have to say I was surprised at a couple of the choices in the 2011 NFL Draft, especially the early round QB’s. It wasn’t a great stretch to know that the Carolina Panthers were taking Cam Newton #1 overall, but for Blaine Gabbert to not be the second QB selected, or that Jake Locker would be the second QB taken, was a big surprise. It was also very surprising to see the Vikings tab Christian Ponder with the 12th pick. I know there are a lot of reports saying how so many teams were trying to trade back into the first round to snag Ponder, but no one moved into round 1 to take Andy Dalton (another hot commodity according to many) and he fell squarely into the Bengals’ lap in round 2. Colin Kaepernick ended up with San Francisco (a real good place for him) and the New England Patriots just couldn’t let the value of Ryan Mallett pass them by in round 3. And when the fantasy football rankings from the draft analyzer come out, it will be interesting to see where some of these names end up being placed.

In the cases of Gabbert, Kaepernick, and Mallett, there is no pressure to start the rookie QB’s as those teams have a starting QB already (I am assuming the 49ers will bring back Alex Smith and let Jim Harbaugh have one crack with him).

But in the other cases, did these teams make the right call in how they addressed their 2011 QB situation? There’s an excellent chance that at least 3, and likely all 4 of the rookies will end up the week one starter.

For Carolina, there simply is no other choice. Newton has to start over Jimmy Clausen even if Newton is really not ready for the complexities of the pro game. You can’t spend the #1 pick on a QB like Newton and then have him sit in favor of last year’s rookie disaster.

Tennessee is under severe scrutiny for selecting Jake Locker and passing on Blaine Gabbert in the NFL Draft

In Tennessee, Locker is very likely going to start week one. Kerry Collins is a free agent and there are no other options. The Titans are counting on Locker developing accuracy as they took a huge gamble in selecting him over Blaine Gabbert. Leadership is a great quality, but QB’s need to be accurate too. Does no good to inspire someone to run a 15 yard out route and then miss him half the time. I really think the Titans took the biggest risk as they had other options.

The Vikings, meanwhile, think they got their QB, but I have my doubts. I don’t doubt Ponder’s mechanics or his smarts, but he is not a strong armed QB and unless the Vikings are going to dink and dunk their way down the field, I think Ponder’s strengths don’t exactly mesh with those of big play WR’s Sidney Rice or Percy Harvin. Both of those WR’s should be downfield vertical threats, not running 6 yard crossing patterns. And that’s what Ponder will bring to the Vikings: a strong short area passing game which will be limited when needing to go downfield.

Finally, Cincinnati hid it from no one they wanted Andy Dalton and despite that they just had to stay put in round 2 and Dalton fell right to them. The Dalton fascination is puzzling to me as he is pretty much a clone of former Bengals QB Ryan Fitzpatrick: a high football IQ QB who needs to work on reading defenses while possessing a limited arm. Smart, heady QB’s are a good thing, but to be special and to win games consistently, they also need to have more of a complete package of tools, and Dalton is going to struggle because of his combination of arm strength and the outdoor stadium in Cincinnati. The good news for him is that the Bengals are scrapping their downfield vertical passing attack and going with more of a ball control focus. That plays to Dalton’s strengths. But if Cincinnati really thinks it’s going to beat both Pittsburgh and Baltimore playing that type of offense (and with the improvements the Cleveland Browns have made they could be a much better defense in 2011) and compete in the AFC North, they are kidding themselves.

There’s a chance that a couple of these teams will bring in a veteran QB and give these rookies a chance to watch for at least a short while before being thrown into the fire, but with the lockout making things difficult to forecast in the future, right now it’s likely that each of these 4 QB’s is going to end up being names placed on 2011 fantasy football cheat sheets by the time we get around to fantasy drafts.

A WR at 5 for AZ?

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With six more days until the 2011 NFL draft, I have to admit I am starting to get that pre-draft adrenaline flowing again; it’s a little different feeling though, more of a bitter-jubilance. None the less I was browsing through these weeks’ headlines and I had read an opinion that the release of the 2011 regular season could indicate the league is confident the season will go on? Let’s hope that’s an accurate assessment. I also read a piece that suggests Peter King projects the Arizona Cardinals could go by way of wide-receiver selecting A.J Green with the fifth pick. Now that is an intriguing notion, a few months back when I wrote my thoughts on why I thought the fifth pick should not be used on a Quarter-back and should be used on defense with an emphasis on Von Miller a wide receiver was never really a thought until now! A.J Green a potential prospect for the Cardinals? Now my wheels are turning, this may not be such a crazy inclination after all? When I look at it; I believe Skelton can handle the signal calling duties but I won’t argue a veteran Free-Agent and if he beats him out in camp then so be it what it really comes down to is the guy’s upfront and Chris Wells entering his third year would have to be a key factor in any success this offense will have, by adding another dimension of an outside threat to compliment Fitzgerald in an attempt to keep the defense honest could be the antidote that gets the ground game going and ‘beanie’ playing up to his expectation, control the clock, keep your defense off the field. A surprises pick indeed that sounds great in theory and looks good on paper.

2011 NFL Draft Quarterback Prospects

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The 2011 NFL Draft is quickly approaching and there is a lot of speculation that as many as 5 or 6 quarterbacks could be selected in the first round. If history is any judge, that seems like an overly optimistic projection and while many teams are needing a signal caller, when drafting in the first round, you can’t afford to miss on the pick. It’s especially head scratching to me that we hear about this many quarterbacks being selected this high when there are really no sure things at the position in this draft class. Each of the quarterback prospects come with question marks, either on the field issues or off the field issues. I’ve documented in greater detail my feeling about these 2011 NFL Quarterback draft prospects in a recent article at FantasyFootballStarters.com and encourage you to check it out for more on the 7 quarterbacks making the biggest buzz in draft circles.

Will Cam Newton be the first player selected=Auburn’s Cam Newton is believed by many draft experts to be the first quarterback taken despite him ranking lower on their best prospects list than Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert. The tremendous athleticism of Newton is impossible to deny, but he isn’t as accurate as you would like, only has one year of stats to really take notice of, and comes with a slew of off-field issues that cannot be so easily dismissed.

Gabbert meanwhile comes across as a smart, strong armed QB who lacks the “it” factor of being an elite NFL caliber QB. He also failed to build on the promise of strong 2009 season in 2010. His accuracy is good and he looks the part of a NFL QB, but he doesn’t excite.

One of my favorite prospects, Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick, has been invited to the NFL Draft party in New York, and that bodes well for him to be a likely 1st round pick as the NFL tries to only invite players they know will be first round selections. Kaepernick is an intriguing prospect with a high degree of smarts and a desire to improve. His abilities as a strong armed passer and excellent runner (3 consecutive seasons with over 1,000 rushing yards) are traits becoming more desirable at the QB position in the NFL. While he’ll need work learning to read defenses and playing under center, he is very coachable and gives maximum effort both in the classroom and on the field. That will endear him to a patient coaching staff.

Washington’s Jake Locker is a guy I don’t understand what all the buzz is about. Not very accurate and questionable decision making are not qualities I see in elite QB prospects, but his strong arm and leadership abilities make him a guy many are projecting to be drafted in the top 2/3 of round 1. But I just don’t see it myself.

Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett is the best pure passer in this draft capable of making any throw with his elite arm strength. But he’s a statue in the pocket and not mobile. And as much is made of Newton’s concerns off the field, Mallett comes with plenty of his own. Comparisons to Jeff George in terms of a multi-million dollar arm on a 10 cent head surround him.

Two others getting a lot of love as being potential late first round picks, Florida State’s Christian Ponder and TCU’s Andy Dalton are smart QB’s who lack great arm strength. Both are considered to be better fits in west coast styles of offenses as they lose accuracy when throwing the intermediate and deeper routes. While one or both could surprise, both have the feel of being career backups in the NFL and not great starters. I’d be really surprised if either was taken in the first round. It just doesn’t make sense for physically limited quarterbacks to go in round 1.

2010 QB Hits n Misses

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With the ongoing labor dispute bogging us down I now hear that this second round of mediation is just a song and dance to satisfy the court and the public with neither side taking it seriously. The Players believe Judge Nelson will side in their favor while the owners are more confident in winning the appeal. With those words I am almost inclined to stick a fork in the 2011 NFL Season but before I do I would like to take a moment and step back to August 22, 2010 when I was pre-finalizing my cheat sheets. Is that an oxy-moron? Well I guess when it comes to fantasy football, your rankings are never really final. Last minutes tweaks are always expected.
I understand the added value a mobile quarterback brings to the table however these projections do not reflect the QB rushing stats as the running QB’s are few and far in between. With nine Quarter-backs projected to pass for at least 4,000 yards all but four met, well I should say ‘all but two’ met expectations; Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers both being right on the cusp with 3,900 and 3,922 yards.

Joe Flacco #15 QB was my target QB with expectations of outplaying his draft position, I slated him for 4,000 and selecting him at the back of round five turned out good value.
It was the first three ahead of him; MJD, Turner and Shonn Greene that killed my team.

Josh Freeman my #27 QB I also took note of, how I came about his Attempts/Completions/Yards? I think it had something to do with him being a rookie without any statistical history, employing the average value theory here based on Tampa’s Team Pass Attempts/Completion /Yards over multiple seasons, added it all together then divided by whatever and got lucky? In summary; a mish-mash of hits n misses and a touch-down to interception ratio formula that needs some tuning?

Missed; Over estimating Brett Farve based on his historical works, finishing 25th in scoring I had him slotted 7th. We knew his time was coming, just not when.
Underestimating Michael Vick, OK, completely disregarding Michael Vick, my bad, with all the Kolb hype and surrounding controversy what were we to expect?
So if we were to have a 2011 NFL season. I believe it will be safe to say the top quarter-backs will perform at their usual high levels aside from that the only other projection I am comfortable making for the 2011 fantasy football season would be Matt Cassel falters badly and Sam Bradford excels to greater heights.
So here were my projections from Aug 22, 2010 vs. Actual regular season stats.
Once again these are only passing stats used to compile my pre-draft cheat sheets, no rushing stats are compiled. Rankings are sorted per fantasy football points calculated from the listed data at;
1 pt per 20 yards, 6 pt TD, -1 Int.

Act My   Att Comp Yrds TD Int   Att Comp Yrds TD Int
1 3 Drew Brees 577 397 4464 32 15   658 448 4620 33 22
2 4 Tom Brady 599 388 4631 28 14   492 324 3900 36 4
3 8 Philip Rivers 518 339 4387 27 12   541 357 4710 30 13
4 1 Peyton Manning 589 393 4626 34 18   679 450 4710 30 13
5 2 Aaron Rodgers 547 345 4443 32 11   475 312 3922 28 11
6 11 Eli Manning 548 346 4224 27 16   539 339 4002 31 25
7 5 Matt Schaub 562 364 4570 29 13   574 365 4370 24 12
8 13 Matt Ryan 492 304 3646 25 17   571 357 3705 28 9
9 10 Carson Palmer 455 289 3530 21 11   586 362 3970 26 20
10 15 Joe Flacco 526 332 4098 23 14   489 306 3622 25 10
11 27 Josh Freeman 478 291 3356 17 18   474 291 3451 25 6
12 19 Matt Cassel 502 307 3596 20 14   450 262 3116 27 7
13 16 Kyle Orton 413 251 2988 17 12   498 293 3653 20 9
14 9 Jay Cutler 578 361 4153 25 21   432 261 3274 23 16
15 42 Michael Vick 31 21 162 2 1   372 233 3018 21 6
16 28 Sam Bradford 411 248 2797 16 16   590 354 3512 18 15
17 20 David Garrard 442 268 2984 17 14   366 236 2734 23 15
18 30 Ben Roethlisberger 393 243 2830 21 10   389 240 3200 17 5
19 25 Mark Sanchez 477 282 3387 19 15   507 278 3291 17 13
20 14 Donovan McNabb 502 307 3475 20 13   472 275 3377 14 15
21 18 Chad Henne 511 319 3517 21 15   490 301 3301 15 19
22 17 Matt Hasselbeck 438 262 2891 18 16   444 266 3001 12 17
23 26 Alex Smith 520 324 3844 20 14   342 204 2370 14 10
24 22 Jason Campbell 408 244 2901 17 13   329 194 2387 13 8
25 7 Brett Favre 513 332 3987 28 13   358 217 2509 11 19

2011 Fantasy Football Top 10 QB Rankings

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Not a surprise to me that recently, when creating a top 10 fantasy football quarterback 2011 rankings list that there were some names I was surprised to not make the list. I clearly see a top 7 and think that almost every list will include those players, but which QB’s should grace the 8th, 9th, and 10th spot?

Drew Brees threw for over 4300 yards and 33 TD's again in 2010

For the record, my top 7 are:

1) Peyton Manning: You can’t argue with his consistency

2) Aaron Rodgers: Ready to be an elite QB again

3) Drew Brees: Only interceptions in 2010 cause people to forget he’s elite

4) Tom Brady: 36 TD’s and only 4 interceptions in 2010? Why don’t I rank him higher?

5) Phillip Rivers: No Vincent Jackson for most of the season in 2010 didn’t prevent him from being a stud

6) Tony Romo: Everyone forgets he was on pace for 5,000 yards and 32 TD’s when broken collarbone ended his season

7) Michael Vick: I’m probably the guy who is giving Vick the least amount of fantasy love in the entire industry. But while he has ridiculous potential, he also has bust factors too.

So after these top 7, how do the rest of the QB’s rank? How about the 2011 fantasy football sleeper QB’s like Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman and St. Louis’s Sam Bradford? Where do they fall in the rankings?

In the first draft of my fantasy football cheat sheets for the QB position, I actually see a clear cut next 3 after these top 7.

8) Ben Roethlisberger: Played great after returning from suspension

9) Matt Ryan: Looks ready to take the next step up in his fantasy development

10) Matt Schaub: Up and down 2010 season but still finished with over 4,300 passing yards

After these 3 to fill out my top 10, there are a clear next 5 to make up the 4th fantasy football tier rankings for the QB’s. Josh Freeman, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford and Jay Cutler. An argument could be made for any of these 5 to be in the top 10, and they clearly rate as the next best after the top 10. Each also has some concern. Freeman needs to prove he wasn’t a fluke taking advantage of a soft schedule. Eli needs to cut down on interceptions. Flacco needs to establish consistency. Stafford just needs to stay healthy for more than a handful of games. Cutler needs a dominant #1 WR to take the next step up in Mike Martz’s offensive system.

Slice it and dice it however you want; the fact is there’s a lot of time to change our minds, but this is how the thinking is going right now.

A QB at 5 for AZ?

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Probably the biggest adjustment the NFL rookie quarterback has to make is to the speed of the game so if he will be learning on the job you would think his greatest asset; a solid offensive line, his best friend a stud running back, those two elements together should play a significant role in the development of the young signal caller but many other variables can hinder the process. Much like the CBA is hindering my progress in evaluating my player rankings and mocks for the 2011 NFL Draft.

Alex Smith had Frank Gore why did that not happen? Brady Quinn, Tim Couch. What was the difference between Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and J.P Losman or Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler? All these QB’s had what could be defined as ‘desired attributes’ ones that particular organizations felt were worthy of their first round selection, the guy they had to have. The next generation of Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford (needs to stay healthy), Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman seem to be catching on quick and are looking more like hits then busts.

Missouri's Blaine Gabbert: Should Arizona take him?

Looking at the Arizona Cardinals the needs are everywhere and hearing the ongoing grumblings about never having a franchise type Quarterback. I can look back to the days of Timm Rosenbaugh, whom subsequently left the NFL after a short stint, rumor was he felt it safer to be a bull rider in a rodeo then a quarterback for the then Phoenix Cardinals. He was probably right and to this day that premise seems to still be holding true as twenty years later you still have no ‘franchise’QB, your line is still porous and your defense gives up time consuming drives that lead to many points surrendered leaving themselves gassed. Which brings me to Kurt Warner, Yes Kurt was the greatest thing to happen to the Cardinals since ‘sliced bread’ but I’m sorry Kurt didn’t give up 41 to Atlanta and and the Chargers or allowed 38 to TB then 36 to Seattle so was this due to a secondary and cover guys not being able to cover, would better coverage allow the guys up front more time to effectively get into the backfield and hurry the passer or is it the guy’s up front not effectively rushing the passer that would take the pressure off of the cover guy’s? The longer your defense is on the field the longer the day for the team, it’s your offense that keeps your defense fresh. With the 2011 NFL scouting combine getting ready to start in Indianapolis, I know the Cardinals will be keeping a keen eye on the top QB prospects and how they perform. I am having a hard time believing this talk of Blaine Gabbert at #5 to be the guy that will fix the Cardinals woes in an instant. He will get shaken, rattled and stirred just like all of the other ones that have preceded him in a Cardinals uniform. I have no issue with John Skelton, He has all the same ‘Proto-Type’ attributes. Height, Weight, arm strength, quick read and react etc. Oh well! I guess not every top rated quarterback prospect can get drafted by a good team, being able sit back and hold a clip board behind a pro-bowl, future hall of fame QB for a few years.

Overrated Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

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I have undertaken a daunting task during the off season. Michael (aka Drummaster) got me thinking about the “overrated” fantasy football player. Managing a league since 1983 I have experienced a considerable amount of fantasy football, but I will never claim to be an “expert” taking a line from Russ Bliss, but I will call myself an analyst.

I originally started to compile a list beginning from 1983 to 2010. Unfortunately that time period was far too vast and carried little relevance when I started to look at players in detail to come up with a baseline on which to derive my overrated player list. It was more challenging then I originally thought. DeMaurice Smith, executive director of the NFLPA, says that “players have an average career length of 3.5 years.” This number can be broken down even further with an NFL quarterback averaging 4.44 years, while wide receivers are 2.94 years and a running back at only 2.81 years.

These numbers seem to correlate with fantasy football very well with my 6 year period for judging players. As for my baseline I broke down my evaluation to a time frame from 2005-2010. Since owners would rather read about recent players I decided to start with this 5 year period and work backwards. I also made the decision to start with the QB position, since it had the fewest players to evaluate. An important stat to look at was the number of games versus games started.

After reviewing and studying draft “cheat sheets” their respective draft position and corresponding scoring I have compiled a list of 6 players at QB, RB and WR who I feel have been “overrated” from 2005-2010 in fantasy football. The reasons for being on this list vary; injury prone, under-performing, over hyped. I am sure there are other players who could be consider on this undistinguished list.

I did not provide an overall point total for each player since fantasy football scoring systems are diverse. What I consider standard might not be the case for another league. Season totals can give you a partial story but these must be compared against where a player was drafted during a given year. For example, if you have a player who is a top tier player prior to a fantasy draft and he doesn’t break the top 5, let alone top 10, he should be considered to have had a bad year. Conversely a player who is a Tier 3 or Tier 4 player who breaks the top 10 during a given season should be rewarded as having a good year. Unfortunately the only numbers I had to go on where based solely on my league and the given online resources I have used in previous seasons. This could easily open up a debate for other players who should be on the list that aren’t.

QUARTERBACKS

Delhomme, Jake (CAR)

Career Synopsis: Signed as a free agent with New Orleans after the 1997 draft, Delhomme would only start 6 games for the Saints over the next 2 season acting primarily as a backup to Aaron Brooks. In 2003 he signed with Carolina and quickly took the job from Rodney Peete in the home opener guiding the Panthers to Super Bowl XXXVIII.

In 2004 he posted career high statistics in pass attempts, completions, yardage and touchdowns, but the team limped to a 7-9 record due to key injuries during the season. He would finish as a top 5 quarterback that year behind big names like Favre, Culpepper and Manning.

The 2005 draft would list him as a Tier 3 QB coming off career numbers in 2004, but would fall short of expectations. He would led the Panthers to an 11-5 record and make his only Pro Bowl appearance behind 3421 yards and 24 TD passes.

Over the course of the next 4 years his starts would continue to decline. In 2007 he would find his way to the IR after Week 3. The following year he showed promise throwing for 3288 yards, but only 15 TDs. 2009 would be his final year with Carolina starting only 11 games, making the move to Cleveland in 2010 where he split time as a starter.

Comments: Delhomme might get an unfair shake when it comes to fantasy, but after 2 solid years (2004-2005) he has not been much of a factor in fantasy football. After his Pro Bowl season in 2005 he continued to underachieve. His numbers prove he might not be the sort of big time QB he was made out to be when he went to the Pro Bowl. His numbers continued to decline since 2008 and by my estimation does not hold much value any longer. Maybe Cleveland wasn’t the answer for him and another change of scenery is needed. I don’t believe he can reclaim the sort of numbers we saw in 2004-2005. Even as a Tier 2 QB in 2006 and 2208 he did not crack the top 10 in total yardage or TDs

Hasselbeck, Matt (GB/SEA)

Career Synopsis: Hasselbeck was drafted in Round 6 of the NFL Draft by the Green Bay Packers and made his debut a year later, but was mainly a back up to Brett Favre. In 2001 he was traded to Seattle for a 1st and a 3rd round draft pick. Initially he competed with Trent Dilfer for the starting job, but started 13 games in his first season with the Seahawks.

In 2002 He started 10 games and threw for 3075 and 15 TDs, finishing the season on a high note and the uncontested starter in 2003. He would put up career numbers in 2003 with 3841 yards and 26 TDs, followed it up with 3382, 22 TDs in 2004. His career was really taking off as the Seahawks would win the NFC West that year with a 9-7 record.

In the 2005 fantasy draft Hasselbeck was a high Tier 2 draft pick behind notable QBs such as Manning, Culpepper, McNabb, Bulger, Favre and Green. He would respond with another very good year going 13-3, starting all 16 games and throwing for 3459 yards, 24 TDs, making the Pro Bowl for his second time.

His 2006 season was cut short due to an ankle injury after leading the team to a 4-1 start. He would miss the next 4 games. Upon his return be broke fingers on his non-throwing hand but played through the injury leading Seattle to a division title at 9-7. After 3 years of 3000+ yards and 20+ TDs he had his worst season since 2002.

A knock against Hasselbeck has been his agility to remain healthy for an entire season. When he was healthy he put up very good number (2003, 2005 and 2007, Pro Bowl selections). After the disappointing 2006 he returned in 2007, but had dropped in pre-season ranking to a Tier 3 QB.

In 2007 Hasselbeck would post new career highs with 3966 yards passing and 28 TDs as Seattle would win the NFC West again (4th consecutive year). Unfortunately, he would follow up this performance with another off year, due to a lower back injury. He would go 1-6, playing only 7 games. Pre-season QB rankings had him as a Tier 2 QB, but he would not live up to that billing.

Recently he has been listed as a low(er) Tier 3 QB. While his yardage has continued to be over 3000 yards, he has yet to play (and start) all 16 games the past 3 years with 34 TDs during that period.

Comments: One word comes to mind when I think of Hasselbeck, “frustrtation.” He has the tools to be a very good QB in the NFL as witnessed by his play in 2003, 2005 and 2007 (must be something with the odd years?). Unfortunately he is injury prone and rarely makes it through a full NFL season, missing 17 games dating back to 2005. Since 2007 he continues in decline, even with Seattle winning the NFC West with a 7-9 record. With Pete Carroll in town, along with a rejuvenated rushing attack led by Marshawn Lynch and Mike Williams and Ben Obomanu at WR Hasselbeck will be able to put up better numbers the next few years. I know he has the potential to throw for 4000 yards and 30+ TD. Perennially listed as a low Tier 2, high Tier 3 he cracked the top 10 in yardage and TDs twice (2005, 2007).

Manning, Eli (NYG)

Career Synopsis: Drafted by San Diego in 2004, he refused to play and was traded to the New York Giants (for Philip Rivers). Since then he has been the Giants starter and to his credit, Eli has started every game since 2005, but continues to play in the shadow of his brother, Peyton.

He was very successful in his first season as a starter (Tier 4 QB), posting a 11-5 record and throwing for 3762 yards, 24 TDs. Both those numbers were good enough to put in him in top 5 among NFL QBs.

Unfortunately his numbers would decline the next 3 years, as he would toss 18 and 20 INTs in 2006 and 2007, while his TDs would remain consistent (23 & 24). His passing yardage would dip as well. Years of 3244, 3336 and 3238 would be well off his 2005 total. After his 2005 season he would be a top Tier 2 QB, but numbers he would struggle during the second part of the season in 2006 and 2007. He would lead the Giants to a 12-4 record and an appearance in Super Bowl XLII against the Patriots, followed by an upset victory over New England, 14-12. He would be named the Super Bowl MVP.

In 2008 he would still be a Tier 3 QB, coming off his Super Bowl MVP season and his numbers would continue to be unimpressive. Of note, he did cut down on his INTs (10), which was a career low. He did enough to lead the Giants to the NFC East crown. Manning would make his first and only Pro Bowl appearance to date, but would lose against the Eagles in the divisional game.

The last 2 years, Manning has been a high Tier 3 QB (possibly low Tier 2), but his numbers have improved. He posted 4000+ yards, 27 and 31 TDs respectively. Unfortunately 2010 also represented a new career high in INTs with 25!

Comments: Consider Emily…err…Eli selection to this list a bit personal, since he snubbed the Chargers on draft day (we still made out with Rivers!). He might even be “questionable” based on his pre-season rankings and how he has finished since 2005. Some call into question his heart or ability to “win the big game.” Sure he has a Super Bowl and an MVP to go with it, but is he really a big time QB like his brother? Oh yeah, he continues to play in the shadow of Peyton, which is a very tough act to follow. His numbers are fairly consistent and he continues to improve as he matures. He could possibly play his way off this infamous list.

McNabb, Donovan (PHL/WAS)

Career Synopsis: Drafted #2 overall by the Eagles in 1999 draft, he would go on to produce some of his best years starting 2000-2004, where he made the Pro Bowl in each year. What made him “dangerous” was his running ability that took the QB position in a new direction (shades of Randall Cunningham, years earlier) and took the Eagles to Super Bowl XXXIX in 2004, losing to New England, 24-21.

2004 was his best year to date as he was arguably a top 3 QB headed into the 2005 draft. Unfortunately team distractions, controversy and eventually an injury put McNabb on the IR after passing for 2507 and 16 TDs.

Over the next 3 years (2006-2008) he would start to return to the sort of QB we saw back in 2003 and 2004. He would see increases in passing yards (2647, 3324 and 3916 yards) as well as TDs (18, 19 and 23). His 3916 yards in 2008 would be a career best (on 571 attempts).

Donovan would be listed a solid Tier 2 QB from 2006-2010, as his passing stats would improve but 2009 (3553 yards, 22 TDs), his final year with Philadelphia would see him slide off his 2008 (3926 yards, 23 TDs) numbers but he would end up being a Pro Bowl selection. In 2010 he would be traded to Washington where he would start 12 games, being benched during the season in favor of Rex Grossman. His 2010 numbers were some of his lowest in his career.

Early in his career (2000-2003), he was a fairly prolific running QB, but as he matured his attempts, yards and rushing TDs decreased. He rushed for 17 TDs during that 4 year span, while only rushing for 8 TDs during 2005-2010. This ability early in his career made him quite versatile.

Comments: This is a tale of two players as the pre-2005 McNabb was a much more mobile playmaker for the Eagles as witnessed by his 5 Pro Bowl sections in consecutive years. Unfortunately even some of those years he really did not put up the sort of numbers one would expect. His running ability made up for what he lacked through the air. As he has matured, he has become a much smarter QB, but only cracked the top 10 in total yards and TDs in 2008. He has been a big name player who was usually a Tier 2 guy who underachieved. The trade to Washington did him no favors either with a struggling offense.

Orton, Kyle (CHI/DEN)

Career Synopsis: It might be a bit unfair to include Orton on this list, but over the last 5 years he has started a majority of the games with Chicago and Denver. Unfortunately in 2006 he was demoted to third string and did not play with Brain Griese as the starter. In 2007 the Bears draft Chris Leak, who struggled, while Griese retained the starting job, Orton got his shot starting the final three games of the season.

In 2008 Orton took over the starting duties and posted a 9-6 record (missing the playoffs) but throwing for 2972 yards, 18 TDs. He was listed as a Tier 4 QB who was battling Rex Grossman for the starting job through preseason.

Coming off his success in 2008, just missing the playoffs, Chicago traded Orton to Denver for Jay Cutler and was immediately tabbed as the starter in the mile high city. He set career numbers his first year there with 3802 yards and 21 TDs, while missing 1 game and leading the Broncos to an 8-7 record.

It looked as if Orton has been reborn in Denver at the start of the 2010 season, as he had signed a 1-year extension (through 2011) and he started off as one of the hottest QBs in the NFL on a record pace of Dan Marino for yards passing (season). Unfortunately late in the season his performances started to slide well off his record breaking pace we saw in the first half of the season. HC, Josh McDaniels was fired and replaced by the RB Coach, Eric Studesville who took a different direction and started Tim Tebow the final three games of the season.

Entering the 2010 fantasy draft, Orton was a Tier 3 QB who was putting up Tier 1 numbers, but with a sieve defense and a running game that was lacking due to injuries; he was not able to keep up the pace of production after Week 5 (but did have 2 good games in Weeks 10 & 12). Kyle would finish the season with 3653 yards, 20 TDs most coming before the bye week.

Comments: In the same vein as Delhomme, this might be an unfair selection because of his playing status in 2006 and 2007 (3 games in 2 years), but since 2008 has started a majority of the game for Chicago and Denver. His time in Chicago did him no favors, but things changed in 2009 when he took over as the starter for Denver. Traditionally a Tier 4 QB, he played down to that level with the Bears, but surprised many in with his 2009 performance. In 2010 he started off as one of the top QBs, but failed to make it through the entire season. Now there is some question if he will start, let alone be with the Broncos in 2011.

Palmer, Carson (CIN)

Career Synopsis: Drafted in 2003 as the #1 overall pick, he played back to up veteran, Jon Kitna and did not take a snap. The following year he took over starting duties with 13 games, showing very good potential with 2897 yards and 18 TDs.\

Coming off a 6-7 season with good totals for a young QB he was listed as a Tier 2 QB with guys like Favre, Brady, Hasselbeck, Bulger and Mike Vick. He would not disappoint in 2005 posting his best season to date and an 11-5 record for the Bengals. He would lead the NFL in TDs with 32 and 3836 yards. He would make the Pro Bowl for the first time as well. He would have surgery during the offseason to repair his MCL and ACL suffered during the year.

He would open the 2006 season under center, after being listed as a Tier 1 QB. While his TD pass number would be down (28 TDs) from 2005 he would break the 4000 yard plateau with 4035, go 8-8 and make his second Pro Bowl (shades of Boomer Esiason). He didn’t look like the QB he was before the injury but his numbers proved otherwise.

The following year I have him listed as a Tier 1 QB for the second straight year and while his TD production continued to decline (26 TDs) he threw for 4131 yards, but led the Bengals to a unimpressive 7-9 record. His 20 INTs also set a career high.

2008 would be a difficult year starting off the season with poor performances against Baltimore, Tennessee and the Giants, the Bengals went 0-3. He missed week 4 with a sore elbow, which was later diagnosed as a partially torn ligament and tendon and elected to rest the elbow and not undergo surgery to correct the problem. This ended his season.

With a reconstructed knee and rested elbow he started the 2009 season, but looked like a much different QB for the Bengals. He was listed as a Tier 2 QB. While he said he was “100 percent” his numbers were off the totals of 2005, 2006 and 2007. After a 10-6 season, he only threw for 3094 yards and 21 TDs. 2010 saw Palmer just miss the 4000 yard mark (3970 yards) and his TD total got a bump to 26, but a 4-12 had him questioning management and wanting to be traded. Needless to say his request was turned down.

Comments: While Palmer does carry some accolades with him, he continues in decline since 2007. Listed as a Tier 1 or Tier 2 QB he had numbers to back up those claims from 2005-2007, but since then is just another QB in a large group who fall under the “average” label. To his credit he did have a good 2010 even with some of this numbers trending the wrong way. He is tough to pass by in a draft, but with big names gone in Cincy and a team rebuilding I think Carson has seen his best days. Maybe retirement is the better option at this point.

Perceived value; improving your stock – Johnny McEntee.

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They say comedians make the best actors but can a back up college ‘trick shot‘ quarterback become a successful NFL quarterback?

UCONN’s Redshirt Junior Quarterback Johnny McEntee has went from an unknown back up quarterback to becoming an overnight sensation blowing up the web as his rendition of ‘Hey, check this out’ has morphed into a new title sequence of ‘How to get noticed by NFL scouts’ It is a remarkable display of abilities. If you have not seen the video yet, I would recommend it. Some of the drills are common practice in NFL training camps as I had noticed through out the years attending Cardinals Camps amongst other drills to challenge the quarterback’s accuracy the bucket drop was entertaining to the sideline fans. In the case of McEntee, he admittedly has had many reps in just messing around with some of the drills, so not really a feat to him, still a leg up on the competition at the next level as rarely if at all did the ball actually make it in the bucket. As recently as 2009 I recall Matt Leinart making it in once other than that Warner did well, much more consistent in numerous other attempts actually hitting the bucket but that was not more than 20 yards away, this guy is doing from 35 yards, watching the video you may notice he is standing between the hash marks, throwing the ball across the grain, a no-no in most coaches circles, impressive none the less.

The old adage; practice makes perfect could apply here but regardless of how much you practice knocking a water bottle off the top of a practice dummy from 20, 30 and 40 yards away, throwing a football through a basketball hoop while sitting down in the sixth row of the bleachers tells me you possess some serious arm strength. To impress us further he demonstrates his ability to stand flat footed from about 15 yards (the 5 to the back of the end-zone) tag both of the uprights then the cross bar and of course there was still more, he showed us that he can make all the tough throws, hitting his receivers in stride on post, fly and outs routes, the out was a little iffy, the receiver did have to stop and wait for the ball for a split, a minor detail though, given the QB was blind folded at the time. Yes, an impressive works that I am sure has raised the brow of new Head Coach Paul Pasqualoni, and has surely opened some eyes in the ranks of the NFL.