2011 NFL Free Agency: Teams get ready to make house calls

With one of the most wild free agency periods in the history of sports on the verge of happening in the NFL, hopefully within a week there are some interesting points being made by: former players Daren Sharper, coaches Herm Edwards, media experts Adam Shefter and former NFL executives like Andy Brandt around what could transpire over the next two weeks. Three key points to think about:

1) Teams will focus immediately on undrafted college players then their own free agents. Unsigned college players are where the “nuggets” can be found as we know in normal years these players are signed immediately after the NFL draft. College players that were drafted by teams who already hold their rights will be the last to get signed.

2) Transactions: Probably looking at 50 transactions per team, totaling approximately 1600 transactions in the entire NFL. In a normal season those transactions are completed over 90 days, this year that could be 14 days.

3) Gone are the days of NFL free agents touring several teams and leveraging those visits to get the best deal. What is probably going to happen is players will ask teams to come to them, since there will not be enough time for them to take multiple visits. Kind of like an open house of sorts.  Can you imagine Kevin Kolb sitting in his house having NFL GM’s stopping by making the big pitch? Get your popcorn ready Kevin!

Now, back to the business of fantasy football keeping track of those transactions is going to be absolutely crazy. The team at fantasyfootballstarters.com is already feeling the crunch. Thank goodness NFL Fantasy Football Analyst Russ Bliss is enjoying a two week vacation right now and due back on July 29th, just in time to track transactions, simulate games and start rocking!

At the end of the day, its going to be quite a ride for the next three weeks!

Lock-Out, Hold-Out and Waiver Wire Gold.

As much as a player can be a distraction to a team, a group can be to an entity. For the moment it appears the over-night in Chicago was good to clear the air within the ranks which has allowed talks to resume with the players, a promising sign of progress which presents us with a renewed optimism of a sooner resolution as they may be feeling that same sense of urgency? I read that July 14, was the dead-line if there was going to be a full slate of Pre-Season games, this was the day before I began to read about the Titans running-back Chris Johnson breaking out the hold out talk, which then raised the ‘hold out jinx’ flag that questions CJ2K fantasy football draft rankings if he were to hold out through what might be a shortened training camp period. If the lock out were to end in time for a full training camp and CJ2K does not report to camp and misses pre-season games should he drop out of the top 5 running backs? It’s hard to imagine that happening but don’t discount the possibility. Speaking from experience and I am sure there are others that can empathize with getting tripped up by this phenomenon in the past and having to endure the consequences of burning that top pick on a stigmatized player that did indeed not meet expectation because of whatever reason. Personally I would avoid players in these types of situations in an effort to fend off the ‘I KNEW IT, I KNEW IT! Anxiety attack .Don’t let it become a distraction. Stay the course, I’m sitting at 1:05 and have both CJ2K and Aaron Rodgers on the board, I’m getting my QB out of the way and do the rest of my damage in the later rounds where I am confident I will pull a gem or two off in the later rounds if not from Free Agent pick-ups. Arian Foster is a prime example; drafting in the 6th and 7th rounds pretty much for depth, a default starter on a team with a stud WR and solid QB and he is still on the board, you can never have to many RB’s in good situations on your roster, Those are the types of player question marks I can deal with when making a draft decision.
I won’t worry so much about CJ, I agree with most that say the Titans will not let it come to that, though the sound of the potential asking price could be an issue?

 So in the event these talks break down again and the lock-out continues late into August and training camps are shorter and games are missed then you can certainly entertain the thought of a Hold-Out Jinx type occurrence across the board affecting all the skill position players that did not get their otherwise regular training reps which may lead to the higher probability rate of injuries making the waiver wire really active, perhaps making it the largest ‘Fantasy football Waiver Wire Gold Strike’ ever!
Now I am really looking forward to the 2011 NFL Season!

NFL Lock-Out Progress Paralysis

A few weeks have passed since we heard the words of ‘Secret Meetings’ A surprise instance that made the outside world nod they’re collective heads as if to say OK progress, let’s get it going. Well I guess those gatherings were not as fruitful as first believed? Moving into the middle of June, without any promising news on a new agreement, slim hopes remain for a resolution to this mess arriving anytime soon. I am still comfortable with thought that a deal will get done sooner rather than later even though the current news makes it sound like a step has been made backwards in these negotiations. I am reading reports that these ‘Secret Meetings’ have been mainly composed of team owners that had been instructed to; be prepared to stay an additional night in Chicago. Apparently an effort to stem ’dissention in the ranks of the owners and not to vote on a new CBA which we all believed was the purpose of these meeting to start with. I wonder if any of these owners have names like William (Bill) or Jerry. According to reports ‘Dissention amongst the owners began in March when the player ‘decertified’. It goes on to tell how the owners had given permission to Commissioner Goodell to propose the New Deal to both sides, it was not until recently that several owners felt the deal was to one-sided and expressed their options as such to the Commission. Greed rises up again?

It is speculated that a deal should be done by July 14th if they anticipate a full slate of pre-season games.. As people were tossing around blame for this fiasco on the owners and some towards the players I was looking at the bigger picture, thinking out-side the box I figured it ultimately came down to us feeding the animals and now it seems the bigger animals are starting to devour the smaller beasts.  The owners started the lock-out and now a select few wish to stall the whole process with resistance just as progress is being made. Note to players; Good Luck!

Plaxico Burress: Best Places for Him and Why I Won’t Be Drafting Him

Released from prison, Plaxico Burress has done something nothing has been able to do since the NFL Draft: put all the lockout talk on the back burner. If only for a day.

Speculation about where Burress will end up playing in 2011 has been rampant the past week, and now that he is finally out of jail, the only thing standing between him and a new team is the lockout. Once the lockout ends, Burress will able to go wherever he wants.

Well, wherever will pay him anything close to what he wants.

I doubt Burress is going to make much of an impact on the 2011 fantasy football rankings no matter he ends up. It’s been 4 years since he had a good season and at 34 years old in August, it’s hard to see him having too many years left in his career. In a recent fantasy football mock draft I took part in, Burress wasn’t even drafted.

I recently posted in my fantasy football blog the various places Burress could end up, but my two favorite places are Washington and Oakland. Both teams could use a player like Burress. Both are known for being willing to take chances on players who may come with concerns off the field. As I said in my Plaxico Burress blog entry: “…Burress is 6’5″, 225 lbs, and Burress is known for going up, fighting for catches, and coming down with the ball. That’s something the Raiders WR’s aren’t known for…” and also: “…Burress would be a welcome addition to a team in desperate need to make acrobatic catches from either Rex Grossman or John Beck…”

Both places are fits for Burress and both are what I would consider to be the front runners once all the current hype dies down. Although I’m sure Burress’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, will continue to do everything he can to keep the hype machine going for his client.

No matter where he ends up though, Burress is not going to end up being ranked highly on any 2011 fantasy football cheat sheet of mine. Too often people cling to memories of glory seasons of years past when evaluating an older player, and that’s likely to be the case with Burress in 2011. I expect someone will draft him at least 2-3 rounds earlier than I would even think about him.

Lets do lunch: Goodell Vs. Smith and the winner is……

So the two power players in the NFL Owners vs. Players had lunch yesterday. Wonder who picked up the tab, probably the mediator Arthur Boylan. That may not seem like a bid deal but it really is in the grand scheme of things. As this lockout goes on leverage becomes the name of the game, if the commissioner and the NFLPA leader can play nice, one of them will remember this and help the other out when negotiations are trying to be finalized trust me on this one.

That’s right they are already getting prepared for one of them to need the other, to help them both save face with the players and fans. The owners, don’t worry about them all they care about is more money and having their ego’s stroked. Its about being able to go back to your side/team and saying “The best deal we are going to get is on the table, so lets take it now”. The only problem here is Goodell has it much easier in the sense the NFL Owners are the ones who put the last deal on the table, now its up to Smith to convince the players that its not good enough. Only problem is this thing called leverage just moved the needle in the owners favor.

What I don’t like about all this is there is no way DeMaurice Smith is going to budge and it probably is safe to say that the idea of them getting together for lunch had more to do with Boylan then Smith or Goodell want to spark side conversations. Another fact that keeps me up at night (yes, I am up as we need the NFL for fantasy football season) is Smith is already rambling and not making any sense which is what the players should fear most. That’s right, he’s not the best communicator in the world. My good buddy Russ Bliss had a great article on how both were to blame, however, I am starting to digg in on Smith being the problem. He can not afford to loose more leverage or the player masses will start to cave in.

Arizona Cardinals 2011 Draft

Well for the most part it looks like the prognosticators pretty much hit the mark, The first five we almost a given in no particular order and went as expected even the Cardinals did the right thing and selected the highest rated player remaining in Patrick Peterson which some will argue; the best player in the draft.
It was not until pick 6 that had everybody tossing their mock drafts out the window. That’s what I really like about the NFL Draft; you build excitement waiting for the time to match your three months of works in compiling data all to put a grade on a collegiate player, you finalize your mock draft. Now as the days inch closer you’re really anticipating a draft that just flows in your perfect order and your team gets your guy and the other teams draft in line with your thoughts? (Ha) then before you know it you are left wondering,,,WHAT, I didn’t have Julio Jones going 6th to Atlanta? Cool, well then it looks like Gabberts a Niner at 7. OK the toss it out the window was just a saying, it went in the recycle.
The cool thing about the Cards drafting Peterson was the fact that Cardinals new D.C Ray Horton was in attendance at the Cards Draft party and walked out onto the stage to greet the Fans after the Bengals selected A.J Green. He asked the crowd who they were hoping to draft then Ray came forward with his inside information and told us that the Cards were going to select Patrick Peterson three minutes before the card hit the podium. Well you would think that would be the logical choice, but hey, you never really know!
What became interesting and surprising was the Ryan Williams selection, apparently the staff told him months ago that if he was sitting there when Arizona selected in the second round he would be a Cardinal. A top three ranked running-back on the board at 38, OK I can deal, perhaps this lights a fire under the heels of Beanie and Hightower. The TE in the third, I don’t really have anything to say about that!, Sam Ocho, I guess a wait and see player a bit undersized but has a motor and doesn’t miss games, a ‘Football Player’ Full-Back Anthony Sherman in the fifth is when I started to get the hint the Cardinals are focused on drafting ‘Football Players’ and not for positions of needs, to be honest, I know more about UCONN’s back up QB Johnny McEntee then Sherman after a little research I understand he is a heralded full back and stud special team guy, possessing some serious run blocking and pass protection skills, loves contact and searches out defenders to lay the lumber on. Sounds useful, hence the ‘heralded’ let’s give him a shot.
I still expect the Offensive line to be addressed in Free-Agency. This draft seems to indicate to me the Cardinals are having a change in their offensive philosophy and are looking more seriously into running the Football. Pound the Rock and ease lingering concern at the quarterback position.

LET’S GET IT STARTED!

Female NFL Sportscaster: Who’s better Suzy Kolber or Alex Flanagan?

Ok, so we all know there is no free agency and no signs of the NFL Owners and Players striking a deal before the draft (last week of April), which means hardly anything fantasy football related to write about these days. The partners of Ready-Set-Go Fantasy Sports are starting to get irritable these days, as are two hundred (200) other fantasy football businesses who are waiting for the NFL and players to strike a deal.

That said, this week I have decided to pay notice on two professional NFL reporters/sportscasters to see who the fans prefer: Suzy Kolber or Alex Flanagan.

Have to admit over the years, I have been a Kolber favorite, however, after watching Alex Flanagan on the NFL Network the past two years she has taken over that spot. Both have had successful careers at ESPN, very knowledgeable about the NFL (its true woman have to work twice as hard as men in the world of sports) and honestly carry that “all American Girl” persona. Which by the way is very easy on the eyes if you know what I mean. That said, I honestly feel they deserve a tremendous amount of credit for the good work they do around the NFL.

So now I hit the streets and ask my fellow NFL/Fantasy Football fans who’s your favorite NFL Female Sportscaster? We already know who Joe Namath prefers…

Fantasy Football Rankings: Top 10 RB’s (and a little rant)

If not for Fantasy Football the NFL would be losing a fan base all over again It’s a challenge to find a positive in what is a fiasco that is threatening the 2011 NFL season. With all the tragic events going in the world today it is no wonder I can’t even muster up an ounce of interest in who gets their fair share of our money. Still we are not oblivious to the issues that only amount to greed in the eyes of most. I have read poll questions asking our opinion on whose at fault in this mess, some are pointing at the owners whiles others point to the players. Yet it seems no one realizes that while we are pointing fingers at them there is always three fingers pointing back at us! That’s right; We fed the pig, the pig got fat, and you know what happens when that pig gets fat? You smell smoke, an aromatic mesquite to be exact!

I can understand the harbored animosity the fans held from the ’87 strike and how some walked away without another thought, but Fantasy Football was not as prevalent in 1987 as it is today so I anticipate a high volume of return once the season gets back to play. But right now it is straight up interfering with my game. With the amount of revenue at stake we would think there would be a quick resolution to get going ‘business as usual’ then once again it won’t much matter how many billions we generate as long as we get our game so we can resume our business as usual: exploitation of the league. 

Maurice Jones-Drew must prove his knee is healthy to claim a top 10 spot in 2011

If not for Fantasy football I would care less about the ‘billion dollar babies’ Foamin’ like a dog infected with rabies’ (thanks for that one Alice and congrats on your induction into the Rock n Roll Hall this past week). I would really enjoy talking about the upcoming NFL Draft and the prospective players that may make that immediate impact for their new teams but right now I can’t place any reasonable expectations on any team scenarios because I am really not feeling it. So until this is resolved and our money is no longer a distraction there are only two items I know for sure: Arian Foster would be my first pick in the 2011 Fantasy football drafts and Maurice Jones-Drew will not crack the top ten in my 2011 Fantasy football player rankings. I like Houston’s team composition everything is still intact with the coaches, system, pass catchers Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels a solid Quarterback in Matt Schaub and the guy’s up front in the trenches to get it done. Of course some may argue Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson as the #1, but I think they are number 2 and 3. I am rolling with the younger, healthier Foster because of the uncertainties at quarterback in Minnesota and Tennessee. Peterson and Johnson (not the Personal Injury Attorneys) will still get theirs though they will be a defenses primary objective. There are some good fantasy football sleepers at RB, but here are my top 10 RB’s for 2011 right now:

1. Arian Foster- Tate will still need some healing it’s Fosters job
2. Chris Johnson- flip a coin
3. Adrian Peterson- you can’t go wrong either way.
4. Jammal Charles- because I’m not trusting MJD’s knee
5. Ray Rice- because I’m still not trusting MJD’s knee- more so if McGahee leaves
6. Rashad Mendenhall-Pittsburgh football is pound the rock and Defense
7. Frank Gore- This is still generous if not for the NFC West deficiencies
8. LeSean McCoy – may still slide ahead to #7
9. Darren McFadden-great upside staying healthy is key to keep Bush on the side.
10. Michael Turner-fading away lets see what 2011 has in store.

NFL Coaches have to reverse off season player strategy

NFL free agency allows teams to select players of immediate need so they can focus their efforts around the NFL draft selecting “best available” players so they don’t have to be rushed into a starting position. Its all about these rookies getting precious experience on the bench just ask Tom Brady or Aaron Rogers.

But now as NFL Head Coaches like Mike Smith voiced today on the NFL Network this off season is 100% about turn from what coaches prefer. So the NFL is already impacted this year. But the good news is he does agree with me and thousands of fans who are curious to see how their favorite team will address “Need vs. Best Available”.

This is exactly what I blogged about back in January this year! May not sound like much but it is a 100% reverse of what a typical off season is for free agents and teams managing their rosters.

The NFL is in a funk and as of this writing arguing about the April 6th, 2011 court hearing and if they the owners and players can get back to the bargaining table. Roger Goddell did his best to address the offer to the players, however, that set off a rash of bad press from the players thinking they were not aware of the deal. Its not going to get any better soon, however, I still stand behind my NFL prediction that they will get a deal done before the 2011 NFL Draft. Take that to the bank!

Both sides can not afford to drag sponsors and fans into their problems trust me that first TV deal that symbolizies what the NFL is for rookies coming in is not going to get tainted. Trust me.

Tiki Barber Coming Out of Retirement

With the announcement that Tiki Barber is coming out of retirement, we now have another name that will be thrown into the discussion of potential 2011 fantasy football sleeper running backs.

Leaving aside some of the personality issues that caused Barber to retire after the 2006 season (something I talked about in my fantasy football blog) the primary question pertinent to fantasy owners is what can we realistically expect from a 36 year old RB who hasn’t played the last 4 years?

Tiki Barber steps out of broadcasting and back into the NFL

You have to remember, Barber was at the tail end of the peak of his career when he retired. From 2002-2006 Barber never had fewer than 278 rushing attempts, never had fewer than 1,278 rushing yards, and never caught fewer than 52 passes in any of those seasons. He scored 45 total touchdowns in those 5 seasons and was especially one of the top fantasy RB’s in his last 3 seasons having over 2,000 combined rushing and receiving yards in each year from 2004-2006, and scoring 31 TD’s in that span.

But you can’t expect those types of numbers from a 36 year old Barber in 2011. As you get older, injuries become harder to recover from. You’re not as fast as you were when you were in your early 31. So what is likely to happen for Barber?

As I talked about in my blog, the Atlanta Falcons are a good fit for Tiki Barber. He would be the change of pace and pass catching RB behind workhorse Michael Turner. A complementary role fits Barber best as this point and the Falcon also give him an excellent chance to get to a Super Bowl as they are a team with the pieces in place to compete every year. Jerious Norwood is too brittle and is a free agent. Jason Snelling is a restricted free agent under the terms of the expiring CBA, but may become unrestricted when a new deal gets done. There could be a need there.

Miami is an intriguing place as well. Both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are free agents and the Dolphins appear to be looking to add a RB thru the draft rather than brining back either of them. Miami owns the 15th pick of round 1 of April’s draft and may be the first team to take a RB. Getting a good set of young legs and complementing them with a guy like Barber may be a good move.

St. Louis is another potential spot. The Rams have been desperate to find someone they can reasonably rely on to carry the ball 5-10 times per game and take some of the load off Steven Jackson. A player like Barber would allow the Rams to draft a RB in the middle rounds and groom a future replacement without having to push him to much early.

Tampa Bay makes sense in that Tiki’s twin brother Ronde plays DB there. With LaGarrette Blount as the primary RB and free agent Cadillac Williams seemingly out, Tiki could be in the same role with the Bucs he would be in with the Falcons or Rams. The Bucs would like a reliable pass catching option out of the backfield since that is the weakness in Blount’s game.

There are a lot of possibilities for Tiki Barber. And while everything is speculation now, before I really begin to give him much consideration, I need to see him get thru some time in training camp. He’s going to have to practice, and that’s something he didn’t care much for at the end of his NFL career the first time.