Archive for Sleepers

2015: Can you buy-low on Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck right now?

If you play in dynasty fantasy football leagues, well, then you know that many fantasy owners often get emotional after losing a league. Thus, the crafty fantasy football owner can take advantage of this by buying low on players that recently disappointed certain fantasy football owners.

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, despite having solid fantasy football seasons in 2014, disappointed fantasy worlds when push came to shove. Rodgers finished the season kind of rough, passing for just 185 yards and 0TDs (2INTs) in Week 15, and he only threw for 3TDs combine in Weeks 16 and 17. Toss in a disappointing final playoff game (22-28 loss to Seattle) and you might have some fantasy owners not thinking clearly when it comes to retaining the passer. Will you steal him away from the current owner? No. That isn’t likely. However, can you buy the 45TD-capable passer at a value you won’t be able to even sniff come August? I say yes, at least in some cases. So, try taking a stab at acquiring Rodgers on the cheap, and cheap is outside the top 15 overall value (vs. where he should be, which is top 5-10 overall value).

Andrew Luck

The same can be said for Andrew Luck, who just disappointed Colts fans in general via his team’s 45-7 Conference Championship loss to New England. Plus, Luck went from dropping some insane fantasy football numbers early on in 2014 (300+ and 2-4TD games) to throwing 187, 109 and 160 yards in Weeks 15-17. And, again, toss in his last playoff performance, you’re looking at some doubt being entered into the equation. Again, like with Rodgers above, you won’t steal him away from his current fantasy owner, however, I can certainly envision it being an easier task acquiring Luck after all of this consistent disappointment.

Conclusion

No one is going to give away either Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck in 2015 fantasy football dynasty leagues, but now is the time to try and acquire these guys in dynasty given they are coming off disappointing finishes to their 2014 fantasy football seasons. They are rock-solid locks as 40TD-capable passers moving forward, and both arguably have top 5-10 overall value in any format you look at. You might be able to acquire both at top 15 overall value, which is a huge, huge advantage if you can pull it off!

2015: Will Teddy Bridgewater throws 54 MPH?

We love bringing all of you useful fantasy football resources/links, and these Sports Science videos help identify some of the hidden measurables in upcoming NFL athletes. Teddy Bridgewater could be in for a big 2015 NFL season, and while he will need Cordarrelle Patterson to take that next step, there is a lot to be excited about with Bridgewater, and this video is a reminder of some of those things. Buy-low in all of your 2015 fantasy football leagues.

Related eBook

ebook the art of fantasy football trading

2015: Don’t give up on Cordarrelle Patterson just yet?

Here at Fantasy Football Help, we want to bring you all of the top resources in the fantasy football industry so that you can dominate your 2015 fantasy football league(s). In that, we like to bring you interesting articles/resources around the industry, and this Sports Science piece (created back in 2013) is a good reminder how physically gifted Cordarrelle Patterson is. And, in that, it’s important to remember that not every receiver reaches their ‘elite’ potential until their third NFL season, and the 2015 NFL season will be Patterson’s third. Even Dez Bryant, who ironically is mentioned in this video as a comparable for Patterson, didn’t impress fantasy worlds until his third season.

Don’t give up on Cordarrelle Patterson just yet, and in fact, buy-low. And, watch this video below if you’re prematurely writing him off after just two NFL seasons:

2012 WIDE RECEIVER SLEEPERS

 

Eric Decker- Denver Broncos

Look for Eric Decker to make a big leap in production following the post- Tebow era in Denver. QB Peyton Manning has taken the reigns in the Bronco offense and even though his arm strength is still not 100 percent, look for Decker to be the recipient of many short to mid- range passes while teammate WR Demaryius Thomas plans to be more of the X receiver and deep threat.

 

Decker should be in linebacker coverage situations mostly and his size should help him play jump ball effectively in the middle of the field and on sideline and post routes. Decker may even play a little slot now that WR Eddie Royal has moved on to greener pastures. The Broncos have stated that they plan to increase his route totals from 35 to 40 a game. That is good enough for me to believe he will be productive and might be a “Breakout” candidate this season.

 

I expect Decker to get close to the top ten in fantasy points for receivers this year if Peyton Manning continues to gain ground in his recovery.

Decker makes a great addition as your WR # 2 on your fantasy team in PPR systems where he will most likely produce maximum points but I would have no problem drafting him in standard systems as well.

 

Fantasy Football Playoff Schedule:

 

Week # 14  Denver @ Oakland

 

Week # 15  Denver @ Baltimore

 

Week # 16  Cleveland @ Denver

 

The Broncos play the tough Ravens pass defense in week # 15, but they get a putrid Browns and mediocre Bronco pass defense in the other two games. You have to like Decker to be very productive in two out of the three fantasy football playoff weeks.

 

 

Robert Meachem- San Diego Chargers

 

Meachem moves from the Saints to the Chargers. He is in position to prove to everyone that he is indeed a WR # 1 in the NFL with a top quarterback in Philip Rivers tossing him the rock.

 

Meachem is replacing Vincent Jackson who signed with Tampa Bay. The problem is that Meachem has never proven to be a consistent producer and his talent pales considerably compared to Jackson.

Another thing to consider is the emergence of Vincent Brown, probably the most talented wide receiver on the Chargers and the one with the most upside. But is Brown ready to take that next step?

I would not draft Meachem too high this season unless he becomes the clear-cut starter in San Diego. This is a player to watch in camp battles and in pre-season. Right now, he is expected to start alongside Malcolm Floyd, but that can change anytime. If he does earn a starting position which he should, then he has a chance to be a focal point of the Chargers high-octane passing attack.

 

Fantasy Football Playoff Schedule:

 

Week # 14   San Diego @ Pittsburgh

Week # 15   Carolina @ San Diego

Week # 16   San Diego @ New York Jets

 

This is a very tough fantasy playoff schedule. The Chargers will be playing two top pass defenses in what could be cold weather games as well.  But to go on the road against the Steelers and Jets has to be a concern for your Charger receivers.

 

 

 

 

 

Michael Crabtree- San Francisco 49ers

 

It is time for Michael Crabtree to finally take that step to turn into solid # 2 WR and now he will get the chance with the additions of Mario Manningham and Randy Moss.

 

Moss, who so far is getting glowing reviews from his coaching staff, will take the top off of defensive as a decoy when he runs deep pattern routes. This will allow Crabtree to stay in man coverage while Moss and TE Vernon Davis will draw safety and linebacker attention.

 

Crabtree’s health is a big question mark though. He has never attended a full training camp due to various injuries and that has stifled his development. Watch his health going into camp.

 

It is not a secret that the 49ers are among the bottom in using three wide receiver sets during the season. Look for that to change as their offense moves away from the run and concentrates more on the pass with Alex Smith showing a big improvement  in that area in 2011.

 

You will be able to get Crabtree in the middle rounds as a WR # 3 or # 4.

 

He is a strong candidate to turn into a borderline WR # 2 this season and is a great value on draft day. Some fantasy coaches are shying away from picking Crabtree but don’t ever underestimate the relationship that Alex Smith has with Crabtree in game time situations and he will look for Crabtree first after Vernon Davis. Moss and Manningham will have to gain his confidence. I think Crabtree’s best value will be in scoring systems that give 1 point per reception.

 

Fantasy Football Playoff Schedule:

Week # 14  Miami @ San Francisco

Week # 15  San Francisco @ New England

Week # 16  San Francisco @ Seattle

 

This is a very good fantasy playoff schedule since all of these teams have major problems in pass defense.

I look for Seattle to improve a great deal and might crack the top ten in total defense this season. However, the Seahawks still don’t have a good pass rush and that spells trouble in their secondary.

This is a very favorable schedule for Crabtree and all of the rest of the San Francisco receivers.

 

 

Mike Williams could be a nice fantasy football sleeper in 2012

Michael Williams- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

The Buccaneers should bounce back after a horrible 2011 season with some fine drafting and some great free agent pick-ups. They have solidified their offensive line and drafted WR Vincent Jackson to provide a deep threat to their receiver unit. Many believe that Jackson will take most of the targets from a run-first offense.

I think this will open up Williams to many big plays since he will be in single coverage the entire season since Jackson will surely get the double team from the back-end of the defense.

 

Will Williams produce big numbers like he did two years ago? Probably not, but the opportunity is there to get back to decent production and possibly produce borderline WR # 2 numbers this season.

 

Another factor is that Tampa’s defense, while improved this season, will still give up points and be behind often in games and will have to play catch-up and pass often to keep close.

 

Fantasy Football Playoff Schedule:

 

Week # 14  Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

 

Week # 15  Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis

 

Week # 16  St Louis @ Tampa Bay

 

I expect the Eagles to have one of the best defensive lines in the league and they most likely will shut down the Tampa Bay running attack in week # 14. This might bode well for the Tampa Bay receivers as the only option might be to go to the pass attack early.

Weeks #15 and #16 looks great for the Tampa Bay against two weak pass defenses in the Rams and the lowly Colts secondary.

 

.

Breakout Player: Torrey Smith- Baltimore Ravens

 

Torrey Smith was very erratic in his rookie season. He would pile up stats one week, and then disappear during the next. However, he was a rookie and the learning curve in a run-first offense was a tough adjustment for him  while the lockout might have been a big distraction for him as it was for a great deal of rookies in the NFL.

 

Smith will greatly erode the targets of aging WR Anquan Boldin. Smith has excellent deep speed and should take a step forward in taking over the WR # 1 position in Baltimore.

I like him in TD heavy and standard scoring systems. Smith is a long ball home run hitter and I would not be surprised if he caught 10 to 11 td’s this season.

 

Fantasy Football Playoff Schedule:

 

Week # 14   Baltimore @ Washington

 

Week # 15   Denver@ Baltimore

 

Week # 16  New York Giants@ Baltimore

 

Smith has a great Playoff schedule and Denver will give him some resistance. The Giants are horrible in pass defense but sustained a great deal of injuries last year and should be better in 2012. The Redskins are good against the pass but if RG -3 can’t produce sustainable drives the Redskin defense may be on the field way too much.

 

Each week has the potential to be cold weather games so take that into account.

 

 

Super Sleeper WR: Darrius Heyward Bey- Oakland Raiders

 

While many like WR Denarius Moore for the Raiders due to his big play ability, it was actually Heyward Bey that became QB Carson Palmer’s go- to receiver in 2011. Bey doubled his receptions from 2010 and hauled in nearly 1000 receiving yards last year. It is safe to say that Bey might emerge as the true WR # 1 receiver over Moore, but it’s too early to tell.

 

Heyward-Bey has a  DUI case pending in late July. Even if he is suspended for a couple of games he is a player to draft late and stick on your bench as a WR # 3 or WR #4 and he just might gel into that super sleeper WR in PPR scoring systems. Just don’t expect a high touchdown count.

 

Fantasy Football Playoff Schedule:

 

Week # 14- Denver @ Oakland

 

Week # 15- Kansas City @ Oakland

 

Week # 16- Oakland @ Carolina

 

While not an easy fantasy playoff schedule, it’s not that tough either. Kansas City lost CB Brandon Carr to the Cowboys and their all-star safety Eric Berry is back from a season ending injury and they signed a not very good Abram Elam from Dallas. But CB Brandon Flowers anchors a very good pass protection scheme so I like for the Chiefs to be very good this year.

 

I like the fact that the Raiders play two out of their three games at home during the fantasy football playoffs. This bodes well for the Raiders to score a great deal of points during this three-game stretch.

 

 

James