Category Archives: Sleepers

2011 Watch List #2

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I’ll admit it. Before I “found the light” and subscribed to Fantasy Football Starters I did not speculate on players very much. In 28 years of fantasy football the waiver wire is a relatively new concept for our league. We used 4 supplemental drafts during the year to replace injured players or to pick up “hot” talent for our roster.

Since the inception of the waiver wire and joining FFS, my views have started to change. While I make it a personal mission not to use the wire, many choose just the opposite path and love the flexibility the waiver wire offers. I fault no one who decides for or against the wire in their league. It’s a choice you make based on how you drafted. If you feel your roster is strong and competitive, then there is no need to move on additional talent.

Seven days ago I threw out a group of names before the start of the NFL season of players I thought could possibly put up some good numbers. While one week doesn’t make a season (Cam Newton!) we can look back on the weekend and add a few more names to that list that I feel deserve to be watched.

Marcel Reece RB OAK
Here is another fullback who seems to have a good set of hands and was used very well in the Raiders offensive scheme last night against DEN. Reece has outsstanding size, 6-3, 240 lbs. And did catch 25 balls last season. If last night was any indication on how Raider football was going to be played, then Reece could be a surprise running back in both the passing and short game (goal line). It should be noted McFadden was not in the game for some of the goal line plunges, it was Bush and Reece. One of the few to keep an eye on.

Carnell Williams RB STL
Caddy only makes this list because of the potential lingering injury to Steven Jackson. It’s also too hard to ignore the 19-91 yard performance on the ground, while grabbing 5-49 through the air. He was Steven Jackson “light” so to speak in his performance against Philly. I don’t expect this all season, but he did play very well against a notably stingy defense.

 

Darren Sproles RB NO
For those San Diego fans, Sproles 7-75-1 TD and 72-yard punt return TD does not come as a real big surprise. This is the type of player he was in his tenure with San Diego. He is that change of pace back that head coaches like. Sproles has the speed to make defenders miss, as well as the skills to be a game changer. Brees used him perfectly in the passing attack as the Saints attempted to comeback against the Packers. While I would not expect these types of numbers weekly, he is a running back that adds quality depth to your fantasy team.

Randall Cobb WR GB
Not sure it would be fair to leave him out, as he outscored all out Packer wide receiver in Week 1. His value was in the kick return game, as he took a kick off back 108 yards for a TD. Then late in the first quarter he caught a 32 yard TD pass from Aaron Rodgers. I don’t believe he will be an integral part of the passing attack in Green Bay, but if you are looking for a kick return or get yards for kick returns, then Cobb might be your man. He is way down the pecking order in terms of starting, but his talent has him on the watch list.

 

Early Doucet WR ARI
It might be “too early” (no pun intended) to tab Doucet as the legitimate #2 in Arizona opposite Larry Fitzgerald. Kolb only passed 18 times and Doucet and Fitzgerald both had 3 receptions, but it would be Early with the 105 yard performance and TD to outplay the $120 Larry Fitzgerald. Kolb only targeted Doucet 3 times, but he made the most of them. At best he is worth watching for now. I don’t believe I would make a move on this early on Doucet.

Ted Ginn Jr. WR SFO
Here is another player that might make some noise as a kick returner, but I hesitate to even include him. Ginn returned both a kick off and a punt for a TD in the Sunday victory over Seattle. As a wide receiver, he is #2 on the depth chart behind newly acquired Braylon Edwards, so I won’t expect much from him in the passing game. Like Randall Cobb if you are looking for a return guy and get points for return yards, then Ginn might be on your short list, but I don’t recommend watching him for depth at WR.

Eric Decker WR DEN
A very ugly 304 yards passing for Orton on Monday night in a somewhat unexciting game, but owners should take note of Eric Decker who returned a punt 90 yards for a TD in the 3rd quarter. He also caught 3-53 (5 targets). More importantly, if the injury to Brandon Lloyd is extensive, Decker gets a bump, more playing time and targets.

Ben Watson/Evan Moore TE CLE
Watson shouldn’t be a real surprise as he led the Browns in receiving last year with 68 receptions (763 yards 3 TD). Evan Moore has good size andimpressed during camp this season but is the #2 TE on the team. His lack of consistency has been a bit discouraging, but the new West Coast offense might see McCoy targeting both Watson and Moore in the red zone. Between the 2 players in week one they saw 13 targets, caught 6 for 80 yards and 2 TE. While not the most popular team or TE, they are two players to watch.

Fred Davis TE WAS
Washington has already planned to use a lot of 2 TE sets this season and Fred Davis is half of that set. In Sunday’s game he was targeted 6 times and had 5-105. Not bad considering it was Rex Grossman at QB. While I won’t tab Davis as a #1 TE, he is another player to watch. In a year where the league might be heavy at that position, Davis could potentially put up some good numbers if Grossman (or even Beck) stays healthy. He is another big, athletic player who can get underneath and become difficult to defend.

Other notables: Jason Avant, WR PHI, David Nelson, WR BUF, Jacoby Ford, WR OAK, Brian Hartline, WR MIA

2011 Watch List #1

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We are inside a week away from the start of the 2011-2012 NFL season, which begins with a big showdown featuring the last two Super Bowl teams, the Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints. Hopefully this game will kick off a great fantasy season for all owners. Unfortunately many fantasy owners also understand that the best laid plans sometimes need to be reviewed and revised. I don’t doubt this year with the lock out and CBA coupled with the short free agency period and even shorter training camps injuries could play a major factor this season.

Many owners have already drafted their teams or will be the next few days. As owners often do, I know because I am always doing it (now), is trying to speculate on talent as we get deeper in the NFL season. Not a week goes by we don’t think about injuries. There are times we will need to review our team because we have players on our team who are not performing. I figured it’s never too early to put together a list of possible players that will be picked off the waiver wire.

Roy Helu RB WAS
The rookie out of Nebraska has big play ability, which was something the Redskins lacked much of the year. Last year Ryan Torain showed flashes at times, but Mike Shanahan was shuffling RBs at random. This year Tim Hightower is the starter but Helu has a chance to be the “change of pace” RB Washington needs. He needs to work on pass blocking and picking up the blitz. With Torain now healthy, Helu will compete for carries. The way Shanahan used RBs last year makes Helu look like a good prospect as the season goes on.

Delone Carter RB IND
The only thing certain in the Colts backfield is Joesph Addai will be the starting running back. There was rumor last year’s back up and replacement would be waived by Indy when teams cut rosters down to 53 players. Brown is still on the depth chart, but it’s Syracuse rookie, Delone Carter who has “impressed” during preseason. He is a strong and explosive back who should win the back up over Brown. Addai’s track record of staying healthy isn’t all that impressive, which means Carter could find himself handling he ball sooner than later.

Deji Karim RB JAX
I had some doubts even including Deji Karim on this list since Rashard Jennings has been lost for the season due to a knee injury being placed on IR. Karim now gets bumped to the back up role for Maurice Jones-Drew, who missed 2 games last year because of injury. With the lose of Jennings, MJD might be relied upon more with Karim as the back up. I suspect MJD will get nicked with minor injuries, which could put Karim in a time share with MJD or getting spot starts for the Jags.

Eric Decker WR DEN
This wide receiver seems to be sliding under the radar during preseason play. Some draw comparisons to Ed McCaffrey. With injuries to Eddie Royal (hip) and Demaryius Thomas (Achilles), Decker is working on starting opposite Brandon Lloyd. Coach Fox is high on Decker as well “expecting big things.” Receivers are usually plentiful, but with the thin air and Orton at QB, you might watch this kid.

Antonio Brown WR PIT
Brown has suddenly ended up on many fantasy lists as a deep sleeper because of his performance during preseason. Not to get caught up in the hype, Brown played well and the Steelers talk highly about his speed and confidence. As it stands now he is not going to be a star on your fantasy team unless injuries occur. He is a name to put away as the progresses.

Brian Robiskie WR CLE
Robiskie came on the final 3 games of the 2010 season recording 3 TDs and 152 yards, which indicates a rapport with Colt mcCoy. This year indications are he will hold off rookie, Greg Little and start opposite Mohamed Massaquoi. Colt McCoy will be running the West Coast offense this season, but with Hillis in the backfield you have to think they will still be a run dominated team. Add to that the ability of Evan Moore and the stalwart, Ben Watson at TE. I still believe Robiskie should be looked at in deeper leagues.

Other notables: Kendall Hunter, RB SF, DeMarco Murray, RB DAL, Stevan Ridley, RB NE, Jerome Harrison, RB DET, Greg Little, WR CLE, Jerome Simpson, WR CIN, Dezmon Briscoe, WR TB, Danario Alexander, WR STL.

It will be clearer as the the season gets underway who could potentially be the hot pick up, even after Week 1. For owners in keeper leagues, some of these players will be better suited for the long term than an immediate impact. Still if you are researching players, it’s never too early to start your watch list going. Fantasy football is dynamic and one injury or lack of output could have you looking to make a move to better your team.

SLEEPER Target Monsters- Wide Receivers 2011

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Let’s concentrate on little known wide receivers that produced well in 2010 and take a look at their outlook for the upcoming season. These were players that largely went undrafted and were picked up later in the season on the waiver wire. There is nothing more frustrating than looking for later round wide receivers on draft day that can help you win and stay in contention until your stud players come back from injury or bye weeks.

The key is to select the best player for your scoring system that can help give you great depth. 

Here were the top five target monsters and their totals from 2010.

Roddy White – 179

Reggie Wayne- 176

Larry Fitzgerald-173

Brandon Lloyd- 153

Brandon Marshall-145

2011 Sleeper Target Monsters

 

 

Miami's Davone Bess is ikely to be a target monster again in 2011

Davone Bess- Miami Dolphins- 2010 Total Targets-125

Bess is one of the most versatile players on the Dolphin’s roster. Though he plays mainly in the slot he has started for the Dolphins on the outside as well and is a return specialist. He has a knack for getting open even though he is very small and does not have lightning speed. I picked him as a sleeper last summer and he performed well with 79 catches for 820 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Bess had more targets than Wes Welker in 2010. He is best suited for PPR scoring leagues and a perfect # 4 WR in standard scoring systems.

I will give the same advice that I did last summer. With all of the off –of- the- field personal issues of WR Brian Hartline and WR Brandon Marshall, Bess should once again be a heavy contributor in catches in 2011.

At the time of this writing Chad Henne was rumored to be the starting QB for the Dolphins. If he does start, then this should insure another productive season for Bess. With most of the attention on WR Brandon Marshall in defensive secondary coverage, Bess will be in single coverage all season long.  If Marshall gets into any type of trouble, Bess should have a production surge.

This is a situation to watch when camps open up. The beauty about Bess is that you will probably be able to get him in the later rounds even though he is now officially on the fantasy radar. Just watch what happens in training camp before you think about picking him up. The quarterback position is key for the success of Davone Bess in 2011.

Danny Amendola- St. Louis Rams-2010 Total Targets – 123

 

Amendola was a pleasant surprise for the Rams last year as injuries once again crippled their starters; most notably WR Mark Clayton, who was making big noise for the Rams before he was lost for the year with an injury.  

QB Sam Bradford needed someone to take his place so he began to pitch the rock to Amendola who proved to have a knack of getting open in the slot position.

It looks like WR Mark Clayton needs more time to heal from his devastating injury in 2010 so the Rams just signed Mike Sims-Walker. Look for him to become the #1 WR choice with Amendola as the second WR option early in the season. However, the Rams are loaded with marginal receivers so another may emerge. Amendola is firmly entrenched as the slot receiver though and will play the Wes Welker type role for the Rams.

Do I expect Amendola to rack up another 85 catch season? Probably not.  But 70 to 75 catches is in his 2011 range. Passing attack guru Josh McDaniels’ has control of the offense and he will be schooling QB Sam Bradford to make him a more potent player. The Rams know they need to improve their passing attack to compete and Amendola will provide the short pass to stretch the chains. His low 8.1 YPC and 3 TD total is not inviting for fantasy owners so I would expect him to be an important bench player only in PPR leagues.  He is essential to your PPR team for quality depth if one of your studs should fall to injury.

Mike Thomas-Jacksonville Jaguars- 2010 Total Targets- 101

 

Thomas came on by mid season and left the often injured Mike-Sims Walker in the dust and took over the WR # 1 position. Now that the lock-out has gone into late July, look for QB Garrard to once again take over the reins and turn Thomas into a true # 1 WR.  You will be able to get Thomas late and watch him blossom since there is very little risk with this pick. You will get true value by drafting him as a WR # 3 and watching him elevate his game.  He was targeted 65 % of the time in the red zone and now will finally get it going with Sims-Walker gone from the team.

This is his time. A great depth pick indeed.

Derrick Mason- Baltimore Ravens- 2010 Total Targets-100

 

I told everyone not to forget about Derrick Mason and even wrote an article about it before the 2010 season. Many coaches thought that WR Anquan Boldin would once again return to fantasy prominence and leave Mason behind. Well, that just didn’t happen. In fact, the two were almost identical in production.

Anquan Boldin- 64 receptions, 837 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns.

Derrick Mason- 61 receptions, 802 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns.

It’s amazing that 37 year old Mason nearly out- produced Boldin. The reason this happened is that opposing defensive secondary’s were paying close attention to Boldin and Ray Rice while Mason was always draped in single coverage. Look for more of the same this year as this most likely will be his last. If you want a WR #3 that will give you 60 to 65 catches, 800 receiving yards, and 5 to 7 touchdowns, then Mason still makes a great fantasy pick for your bench late in the draft.

 Ravens QB Joe Flacco still has great confidence in his ability and so should you. We told you to take Mason last season and he produced. The Ravens just recently waived him but I highly doubt that the Ravens will start an unproven rookie and not re-sign Mason. If the Ravens ink him to a new contract, he will start and you should draft him for your bench. If not, then say goodbye to a productive fantasy football player that gave many teams such great fantasy depth for so many years.

Johnny Knox- Chicago Bears –2010 Total Targets- 99

 

Johnny Knox eventually became the true # 1 WR in the Mike Martz passing experiment in Chicago. What we found out in 2010 is that Devin Hester is not a real receiver while Johnny Knox became Cutler’s go to guy. His nearly 19 yard per catch production puts him in the elite range for yardage hogs in the NFL. He is a home run hitter and deep ball threat and makes a great low level WR # 2 in standard scoring systems. Look for him to improve in his catch total as QB Jay Cutler becomes more comfortable in the passing game and since Martz is so in love with the system and could care less if he adds length to his receiving corps, look for Knox to improve all around in 2011, even with the addition of a free-agent WR Roy Williams who should have little impact on Knox’s numbers and who I predict will be riding the pine by mid season.

Lance Moore- New Orleans Saints-2010 Total Targets-95

 

 

 

Lance Moore went largely undrafted last year except in PPR leagues.  The spread offense led by Drew Brees is hard to predict since footballs seem to fly to the open man and not just his favorite receivers. Moore produced well in 2010, raking up an astonishing  72 % of his targets in the red zone. This is not surprising since he hauled in 8 touchdowns.

Since Moore has signed a new contract to keep him happy, that will keep the fantasy owners happy to, He should be available in the mid rounds to keep your 2011 roster a strong one.

2011 Bust out Sleeper- Mario Manningham- New York Giants- 2010 Total Targets- 92

Manningham took over the starting spot when Steve Smith went down to injury and became the WR # 1 when Hakeem Nicks was injured late in the year. What Manningham did was put up 944 total yards and 9 touchdowns which included three consecutive 100 yard games in the last three weeks of the season. 

Late word is that there is a good chance that WR Steve Smith will start out on the PUP list and won’t play for the first six weeks of the season even if the Giants sign him to a new contract. If this happens, then expect Manningham to solidify the WR # 2 position and put up even bigger numbers in 2011. This is a safe pick with little risk and someone you should target as a very strong WR # 2 in all scoring systems in the middle rounds of your draft.

Can Super Mario do it again in 2011? My guess is that he can.

James

2011 Early NFL Fantasy WR Sleeper and thoughts on Free Agency

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As stated in previous blogs about July 1st predicted as the date 2011NFL  fantasy player values will begin to decline from they could potentially do in the season. This is really based on the lack of practice/reps/meetings/install schemes and systems that would normally be done by now. Allot of franchises are trying to prepare for when the season will start and what they have tome to accomplish from a roster perspective.

Sure, there is going to be lots of free agents but with such a short season, you gotta look at your current roster and focus on keeping them. As I pour through rosters and reading up looking for 2011 fantasy football super sleepers like a guy Kevin Jurovich WR for the 49ers. Word out of the bay area is that this guy has really impressed the coaching staff and no WR on that roster has a starting job, but its very wise to get as many reps as you can in the off season with the potential starting Quarterback. Good story there.

That’s why I really think the NFL has to consider some grace period for teams to review/make first offers on their own guys, before all of them hitting the market at once once the new CBA is in place. This is also important to the quality of the game and at the WR position, you have to have guys that know the system. Speaking of Fantasy Wide Receivers check out how high Greg Jennings is on Russ’s top 10 2011 WR rankings for 2011, I’d say thats a bit of a reach just because there are so many other weapons on that roster.

Another thing to consider is the incoming coaches taking over NFL teams this year may have to adapt to what system the players are comfortable with the first part of the season as well. More of that happens then one thinks these days. All things to consider for what is going to be a wild 2011 fantasy football season.

2011 NFL Rookie’s that will have an early fantasy impact

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So different this year when it comes to accessing how rookies will impact their new NFL teams. You see typically an NFL team by this time of year has pretty much all their players in place that should make the roster. OTA’s with the rookies has just been completed and some second tier free agents might be peppered in here and there. However, this year is screwed up with no free agency (if any) in place or in sight for that matter.

That’s what makes it so difficult to predict this early rookies that could have a fantasy impact in early 2011. Perfect example- one could say Ryan Williams is in the perfect situation, having Cardinal fans tired of Chris Well’s being so below average, that they would welcome Williams with open arms. Only problem is two fold: 1) fans don’t mean a damn and 2) No one knows what type of QB play the Cards will have to see if teams only need to worry about stuffing the run (see all of 2010) and take their chances with crappy QB play.

That said there will be allot scrutiny about my early 2011 fantasy football rookie cheat sheets- so let the banter begin:

1) Daniel Thomas, RB Dolphins- He has the best opportunity to earn early reps especially with the turnover that is anticipated coming from aging elders Ronnie Brown and Ricky “don’t touch that number” Williams.

2) Mark Ingram, RB Saints – If there was a better fit for this kid- show me. He’s got Pierre and Reggie to mentor him and while he’s learning they loose all the reps and leverage. This is the one position where “father time” grabs a hold of you early in your RB career.

3) Julio Jones, WR Falcons- No surprise there will be a ton of pressure on this kid to produce early, however, he must remember that learning how to learn will be the first and most important priority. The WR position takes time 2-3 years before you master it and thats with an outstanding work ethic. Patience is needed.

4) Lance Kendricks, TE Rams – Hate this pick because its so good. That’s right I am a 49er fan and hate the fact that this kid will go up against my favorite time twice a year. Solid pick and Bradford is a solid trigger man who will learn how to incorporate this kids strengths early and often.

5) Kendall Hunter, RB 49ers- Love this pick and will have allot of fun following him. He’s going to beat out Dixon as Gores backup (Dixon dances too much with the ball) and thats going to allow the 9ers to have someone to hit the outside edge, when they are not grinding Gore.

6) Mikel Leshoure, RB Lions- Going to give J. Best a run for his money and could very well end up outperforming everyone else on this list. That said, look for the Lions to find ways to get this guy on the field.

7) Randall Cobb, WR Packers- Any WR that gets drafted by the Packers has a chance to be a top 10 rookie pick. C0uple that with some movement with the Packers current WR corp and you have a kid arriving at the right place and time (see Ingram earlier post) to be awfully successful.

Tiki Barber Coming Out of Retirement

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With the announcement that Tiki Barber is coming out of retirement, we now have another name that will be thrown into the discussion of potential 2011 fantasy football sleeper running backs.

Leaving aside some of the personality issues that caused Barber to retire after the 2006 season (something I talked about in my fantasy football blog) the primary question pertinent to fantasy owners is what can we realistically expect from a 36 year old RB who hasn’t played the last 4 years?

Tiki Barber steps out of broadcasting and back into the NFL

You have to remember, Barber was at the tail end of the peak of his career when he retired. From 2002-2006 Barber never had fewer than 278 rushing attempts, never had fewer than 1,278 rushing yards, and never caught fewer than 52 passes in any of those seasons. He scored 45 total touchdowns in those 5 seasons and was especially one of the top fantasy RB’s in his last 3 seasons having over 2,000 combined rushing and receiving yards in each year from 2004-2006, and scoring 31 TD’s in that span.

But you can’t expect those types of numbers from a 36 year old Barber in 2011. As you get older, injuries become harder to recover from. You’re not as fast as you were when you were in your early 31. So what is likely to happen for Barber?

As I talked about in my blog, the Atlanta Falcons are a good fit for Tiki Barber. He would be the change of pace and pass catching RB behind workhorse Michael Turner. A complementary role fits Barber best as this point and the Falcon also give him an excellent chance to get to a Super Bowl as they are a team with the pieces in place to compete every year. Jerious Norwood is too brittle and is a free agent. Jason Snelling is a restricted free agent under the terms of the expiring CBA, but may become unrestricted when a new deal gets done. There could be a need there.

Miami is an intriguing place as well. Both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are free agents and the Dolphins appear to be looking to add a RB thru the draft rather than brining back either of them. Miami owns the 15th pick of round 1 of April’s draft and may be the first team to take a RB. Getting a good set of young legs and complementing them with a guy like Barber may be a good move.

St. Louis is another potential spot. The Rams have been desperate to find someone they can reasonably rely on to carry the ball 5-10 times per game and take some of the load off Steven Jackson. A player like Barber would allow the Rams to draft a RB in the middle rounds and groom a future replacement without having to push him to much early.

Tampa Bay makes sense in that Tiki’s twin brother Ronde plays DB there. With LaGarrette Blount as the primary RB and free agent Cadillac Williams seemingly out, Tiki could be in the same role with the Bucs he would be in with the Falcons or Rams. The Bucs would like a reliable pass catching option out of the backfield since that is the weakness in Blount’s game.

There are a lot of possibilities for Tiki Barber. And while everything is speculation now, before I really begin to give him much consideration, I need to see him get thru some time in training camp. He’s going to have to practice, and that’s something he didn’t care much for at the end of his NFL career the first time.

Bounceback Fantasy Player Candidates for 2011

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There is certainly no shortage of candidates for 2011 Bounceback Fantasy Player. In fact, there are so many candidates that in a recent roundtable discussion between me and 7 other fantasy football analysts, we each named a different player. I’m sure as the off-season proceeds you’ll see many choices in various fantasy football blogs for Bounceback Player. In my own, I chose New York Jets RB Shonn Greene. I made my choice before the Jets decided to retain LaDainian Tomlinson, but I’ll stand by it as I fully expect that after seeing how LT tired the second half of the season in 2010, they’ll decide the fresh young legs of bowling ball Shonn Greene is better suited to be the primary RB between the two and that Tomlinson is better served in a complimentary role.

Our panel of fantasy analysts was put together by Rick Perkins of FantasyFootballTrader.com, and others who took part in our first question of identifying the 2011 Bounceback Fantasy Player included Jim Day of FFWhiz, Ryan Lester from Lester’s Legends, Derek Lofland of FantasyFootballManiax, Jeff Pasquino from DynastyGuys, Jim Piatt of FanaticFantasyFootball, and Matt Schauf from RapidDraft. You can check out the complete write-ups of each analyst’s picks at FantasyFootballTrader.com.

At FantasyFootballStarters.com I published a piece in our fantasy football articles going over each of the other analysts selections for Bounceback Fantasy Player and gave my thoughts on their choices. But I wanted to take a look at a couple of names who didn’t get mentioned but make prime candidates:

Randy Moss has no where to go but up after a horrible 2010 season

*-Randy Moss. Was there a bigger fantasy disappointment in 2010 than Moss? What a horror his season turned out to be for those who invested a top 25 pick on him in their fantasy football drafts. Moss is a free agent and who knows where he’ll end up? Maybe back in Tennessee? Maybe in St. Louis? I don’t think Moss is completely washed up and he could surprise and be an excellent value pick if he slides down the rankings on 2011 fantasy football cheat sheets.

*-Donovan McNabb. He’s not returning to Washington to be a backup and while McNabb’s skills have declined some, he is still a better QB than about half the teams in the NFL currently have penciled in as their starter. Imagine if McNabb landed in Minnesota, Arizona, Tennessee, or Miami? All 4 are teams that have weapons to be prolific passing attacks and McNabb would be a huge upgrade for any of them. Like Moss, McNabb probably has a couple of years left before he seriously goes into the tank.

*-Matt Stafford. Injuries keep cutting his seasons short and he may never be able to stay healthy, but if he could, everything is in place for him to really shine. The Lions are built to be a passing offense more than a grinding rushing offense and when Stafford has played, he’s impressed. It’s almost a lock he isn’t going to be drafted as a fantasy starter even though he may be projected to have solid stats for a full season on our fantasy football draft analyzer by the time we get to July.

Like I stated at the beginning: there’s no shortage of potential candidates for Bounceback Fantasy Player in 2011. And as the off-season progresses, we’ll get a better fix on the most likely candidates.

James Jones vs. Jordy Nelson: Better Fantasy Sleeper in 2011?

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There’s a lot to chew on these days. Super Bowl 45; the NFL’s CBA with the players union; and the NFL combine coming up in a few weeks; and the use of franchise and transition tags. But I recently veered off the established path and posted some 2011 fantasy football sleeper WR’s in an article (and also posted an additional sleeper WR in my fantasy football blog). In the article, I mentioned a preference for Jordy Nelson in Green Bay over James Jones and I know that many like Jones more. I figure that when we look for a sleeper WR from the Packers in 2011, it’s going to come down to one of these two. Even though Donald Driver is under contract until 2013, it’s widely speculated that his production is on the decline and that one of these two younger, emerging WR’s will take on a more prominent role in 2011. Many expect it to be Jones, and while that wouldn’t surprise me, I think Nelson has a chance to usurp him as the better fantasy sleeper.

Will Jones step up in 2011?

Let’s look at the stats from 2010:

James Jones: 50 receptions, 679 yards, 5 TD’s

Jordy Nelson: 45 receptions, 582 yards, 2 TD’s

On the surface, it appears Jones has the edge. Often he played as the #3 WR while Nelson was the #4, but let’s look at the targets (the number of passes actually thrown to a player) for both:

Jones: 87

Nelson: 65

When compared to the amount of receptions each player caught, Jones managed to catch 57.5% of his intended targets. Nelson had a much higher rate catching passes intended for him making the grab 69.2% of the time. Of all the Packers WR’s and TE’s, Jones had the lowest conversion rate of targets to catches. There’s something to be said for having surer hands.

Let’s look at the playoffs. In 3 games against Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Chicago, the stats are:

Or will it be Jordy Nelson who steps up in 2011?

Jones: 6 receptions, 94 yards, 2 TD’s

Nelson: 12 receptions, 146 yards, 1 TD

Only Greg Jennings has more catches and receiving yards than Nelson thru the playoffs so far. The targets in the playoff games also shows a preferred receiver as well.

Jones: 8 targets

Nelson: 14 targets

So in these biggest games, when the most is on the line, who is getting thrown to more often? Nelson is.

Now, like I said in the referenced sleeper WR’s article, Jones has more flash to his game (witnessed by his higher TD total and better yards per catch average), but Nelson has more substance and is more reliable. And like I also mentioned in the article is that Jones is a free agent heading into 2011; Nelson will be in the final year of his original rookie deal. Few things provide motivation like playing for a contract. And players in their contract seasons usually put up their best efforts. Since 2010 was the last year of Jones’ original rookie contract, it’s kind of surprising his numbers weren’t even better considering Driver missed one game because of injury and was limited a lot in several others. Despite the opportunity given, and the motivation of playing for a new contract, Jones didn’t shine like he could have. Like I would have expected a player on a prolific passing team, and in his situation to have done. And there’s even a chance he isn’t back with the Packers in 2011 since he is an impending free agent.

When I look at the two, I see Nelson as the better potential sleeper. He may not have as much natural playmaking ability as Jones, but all things considered, he should have more targets and catch more passes in 2011, and that puts the weights in his favor to have more yards, and better fantasy production.

Hue Jackson: The Right Choice for Oakland

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While there have been seven NFL head coaching changes this off-season, Al Davis was smart to stay in house on his choice. And while I know there are many fantasy football blogs (including mine) that have talked about some of the other moves (like Josh McDaniels taking over as the offensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams replacing departed Pat Shurmur), this one by Oakland deserves some props and provides something we’ve missed from the Raiders in recent years: hope for fantasy football production out of this team.

Hue Jackson goes from offensive coordinator to Head Coach in Oakland

The hiring of Hue Jackson to be the new head coach of the Raiders was the right move by Al Davis. Jackson was the team’s offensive coordinator in 2010 and his promotion means stability for one of the best rushing attacks in this past season. Jackson also got the Raiders to have their best season passing the football since the 2005 season. He will be keeping the same offensive system intact for the 2011 season and that bodes well for the continued development of Jason Campbell at QB.

Jackson has already stated a preference for Campbell to Bruce Gradkowski to be his QB and while Campbell was much maligned at times in 2010, he clearly is the better QB. One thing that has plagued Campbell throughout his NFL career has been a constant changing of the offensive systems he’s had to play in. It changed several times during his time in Washington and it hindered what was once considered to be a top potential QB prospect for the professional level.

Now the question is whether Jackson can get the young WR’s in Oakland to develop into solid NFL starters. Darrius Heyward-Bey is an Al Davis favorite, and while he can run like a deer, it does no good if he catches like one, too. DHB needs to work hard on his hands, and eye-hand coordination, so he doesn’t turn out to be a huge bust in the NFL. There is talent there, but it hasn’t come together yet for him and if Davis insists on Heyward-Bey being a starter at WR (and Davis usually does dictate a lot from his throne as owner) Campbell will need the inconsistent WR to take his game up a level.

An Oakland guy I’m high on as a potential fantasy football sleeper in 2011 is WR Jacoby Ford. Ford doesn’t have the size you see in many of today’s top WR’s in the NFL, but he is fast, elusive, and shows a surprising willingness despite only being 5’10″, 185 lbs, to go after the ball in the attempt to catch it. He could turn out to be a surprise for fantasy purposes in 2011 (providing the owners and the player’s union get a new NFL collective bargaining agreement in place).

There’s also Louis Murphy and Chaz Schilens, but neither has the upside of Ford and both come across more like complementary WR’s than potential “go-to” guys.

Luckily, the Raiders have a “go-to” TE in Zach Miller. Miller’s numbers from 2010 don’t wow, but when you consider he played most of the last half of the season with a sprained foot, and was clearly hampered by it for several weeks, they look more impressive. Miller has quietly emerged as one of the best pass catching TE’s in the NFL and if Jackson can get Campbell to step up to a higher level as a QB, it will mean Miller will be undervalued in fantasy drafts this year.

The Jackson promotion should also help prevent RB Darren McFadden from being a one year wonder. McFadden was a surprise fantasy football stud in 2010 starting 13 games and amassing 1,157 rushing yards (5.2 yards per carry), 47 receptions for 507 receiving yards (10.8 yards per reception), and scored 10 total touchdowns. This was the breakout year for McFadden that everyone was hoping would come in the prior two seasons since he was drafted. McFadden was actually being drafted after Michael Bush (another talented RB on Oakland, but not nearly the playmaker McFadden is) in 2010 fantasy drafts. McFadden looks to be a potential top 10 RB on 2011 fantasy football rankings and his chances are much better with Jackson still in charge of the offense.

Usually the Raiders are the butt of jokes when it comes to producing impactful fantasy football prospects, but that won’t be the case in 2011. With Hue Jackson, they got this one right.

2011 fantasy football picks- I think

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Its been a heck of a season for fantasy football and if anyone has had interesting picks its been me. First let me admit to the fact that my early 2011 predictions have lots of fans LOL, but at least I put them out there that early for everyone to see.

That’s the great part of being in the fantasy sports industry you have an opportunity to share your opinion with millions of fans. Plus, as recent as last week my good friend and business partner Russ Bliss and I were still enjoying the opportunity to share our fantasy football picks on Arizona news channel 3 during the Sunday morning 730am half hour with Tess Rafols.

After watching two upsets (Seattle, Jets) yesterday it made me give some serious thoughts to my early predictions  for 2011 and how some players just might be moving up the board based on a late season surge. That said, more thoughts on early 2011 fantasy football picks, who did not make my earlier list:

1) Chiefs Wide Receiver Dwayne Bowe: I thought you were going to do exactly what you did last year run a “fade route” and never return. Let me eat my words, next year your a top 5 wide receiver. Good luck today with those Ravens.

2) Browns Running Back Peyton Hillis: Still have more to prove next year and this coaching change might impact you, but man – you held strong this season.

3) Steelers Wide Receiver Mike Wallace: I blogged about you early this year and should have followed my gut on this one. Great job and your a top five pick as well.

4) Broncos Quarterback Kyle Orton: If you get traded this off season it might impact you being an early 2011 fantasy football pick, but top 10 Quarterback for sure.

5) Broncos Wide Receiver Brandon Lloyd: You broke my heart in San Francisco, then you go and do something great, then something stupid during your Pro Bowl press conference, just validates for me your a one hit wonder. Lightening does not strike twice here.

6) Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson: Your another story and a good one. Next year, I don’t have the luxury of calling you a sleeper. Stay focused this off season, you can get better.

7) Broncos Quarterback Tim Tebow: John Elway is going to end up influencing your career one way or another. Not just the things legends are made of, but he will either embrace you as the new VP of Operations for the Denver Broncos, or get rid of you. My gut says you stay and flourish.

8) LeGarrette Blount Running Back Buc’s: Your a beast and must stay in shape and not explode, which is my worry. Stay focused and out of burger kings this off season. Prove me wrong and be a top five pick next season.

9) Raiders Running Back Darren McFadden: Hue Jackson deserves allot of credit for your resurgence and think next year you have to prove it all over again to be considered a top 5 fantasy football pick.

10) CBA: Don’t ruin the off season for the fans let them enjoy the 2011 Combine and NFL Draft without worry of a stoppage. If you can pull it off, have this done by the end of April.