Now that the NFL Draft has concluded and we begin to look forward at our upcoming Fantasy football drafts visualizing what we want our 2013 fantasy squad to look like, we mull through the variety of draft rankings, pin pointing players in each round that we feel will comprise our next championship fantasy team. A trend began in 2006, a trend that saw an increase production in the Quarterback and wide receiver play as NFL teams were opting for more of an aerial game pushing the ball down field with speed and accuracy parting ways with the ground and pound philosophy thus leaving a full back as an antiquated position and replacing him for an additional TE in what we are now seeing much of in the 12 personnel set, but all is not lost as the tail back is still a critical part of an offense especially the pass catching back. As there are still few that will get theirs. Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin will still receive the lion’s share of their teams carries as will a perennial stud running back, Minnesota Vikings Adrian Peterson.
The term ‘Chasing Ghost’ is used to describe drafting a player based off of his prior years exceptional performance in hopes of recapturing the same results or better in the following year. Typically they fail to produce to your expectations for one reason or another.
Why Adrian Peterson should not be the first pick in your 2013 Fantasy football draft, really I can’t think of a good reason? He has defied history and all statistical logic. Typically when we see a running-back that has had 300 plus carries in consecutive years we expect diminished stats in the following year’s production.
2008 -363 att 1,700 yards 10 TD’s.
2009 -314 ATT 1,300 yards 18 TD’s
2010- 283 ATT 1,298 yards 12 TD’s
As the data shows there is a decrease in attempts and yards but TD’s held true so however the decrease, A.P is still providing top quality production.
With A.P shredding three of the four ligament in his knee in 2011 we pretty much wrote him off for the 2012 season, nine months removed from a complete knee rebuild repairing the ACL, MCL and LCL A.P enters training camp and by mid-August he is running lateral drills in a sand pit? That raised many an eye-brow, we sat up and took notice, I was in disbelief, how can that be? Then September comes and A.P is ready to play, starts 16 games and ends the season on the cusp of breaking Dickerson rushing record racking 2,097 yards on 348 Attempts and 12 TD’s . Now what say you? Unprecedented! History does indicate a drop in production but when you look at the overall big picture a six year career average 292 attempt – 1,474 yards and 12 TD’s is solid and would work just fine for me. Chasing Ghost may apply to all others, but not here. So if Peterson does pull off another spectacular season in 2013 we will just have to wait until 2015 to see if he will defy the 30 year old running-back theory. Until then you cannot doubt the man, the player, the best running-back in the league.